TIGER JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$169.37

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $148.20 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.13%

423 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

50.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

34 openings · below min

7 days

86.88%±8.46389 openings

30 days

87.13%±8.11423 openings

since tracking started

87.13%±8.11423 openings

78.0%108.5%139.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	34	110.05%±28.5	—	odds
7d	389	86.88%±8.46	−0.1σ	odds
30d	423	87.13%±8.11	−0.1σ	odds
All	423	87.13%±8.11	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 433 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	12.5%	$357	30.1%	56	54.1	1.03×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	12.5%	$295	24.9%	68	54.1	1.26×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	12.5%	$284	24.0%	43	54.1	0.79×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	12.5%	$223	18.8%	47	54.1	0.87×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	12.5%	$21.04	1.8%	55	54.1	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	12.5%	$4.10	0.3%	55	54.1	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	12.5%	$0.69	0.1%	60	54.1	1.11×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	12.5%	$0.41	0.0%	49	54.1	0.91×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/tiger-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$172$0.410.00x4h

★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$172$3652.12x4h

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covertDeadGamer$172$2841.65x4h

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$172$0.690.00x4h

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$172$2841.65x4h

★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$172$3652.12x4h

AK-47 | Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDeadGamer$172$2951.71x4h

★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$172$3652.12x4h

AK-47 | Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$172$2951.71x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$169	87.50%	8
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$174	87.50%	8
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$176	87.50%	8
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$178	87.50%	8
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$176	87.50%	8
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$178	87.50%	8
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$178	87.50%	8
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$178	87.50%	8
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$178	87.50%	8
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$178	87.50%	8
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$179	87.50%	8

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 25.0%classified 12.5%red 12.5%pink 12.5%mil spec 12.5%restricted 12.5%violet 12.5%best hit —