TOXIC

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$2.60

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $2.27 from 79 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.66%

31.7K openings, odds method

Variance

10.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.03%±11.992,735 openings

7 days

85.59%±4.4520.4K openings

30 days

84.66%±3.5931.7K openings

since tracking started

84.66%±3.5931.7K openings

69.5%82.0%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,735	82.03%±12.0	−0.9σ	odds
7d	20.4K	85.59%±4.45	−0.8σ	odds
30d	31.7K	84.66%±3.59	−1.4σ	odds
All	31.7K	84.66%±3.59	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values79 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100,000	$1,238	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50,000	$840	0.7%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$411	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 10,000	$309	1.4%	4	3.2	1.25×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$219	1.4%	2	4.8	0.42×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$210	1.6%	4	5.4	0.74×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 3,333	$164	2.2%	12	9.6	1.25×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$128	0.1%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 20,000	$87.84	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$71.74	0.0%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$54.96	0.1%	0	1.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$53.92	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$51.04	0.2%	0	3.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$44.56	0.2%	0	3.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$34.36	0.3%	0	6.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$28.27	0.4%	0	9.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$27.14	0.1%	0	3.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 3,333	$19.78	0.3%	0	9.6	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$16.00	0.2%	0	9.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$15.68	0.2%	0	9.6	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$15.10	0.3%	0	12.8	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$15.02	0.3%	0	12.8	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$14.72	0.3%	0	12.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,667	$13.85	0.4%	0	19.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$13.66	0.2%	0	12.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,667	$13.65	0.4%	0	19.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$12.91	0.2%	0	12.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$12.13	0.3%	0	16.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,500	$9.77	0.2%	0	12.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 213	$8.90	1.8%	0	150.1	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 149	$8.73	2.6%	0	214.0	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 270	$8.70	1.4%	0	118.2	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 89	$6.74	3.3%	0	357.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 141	$6.73	2.1%	0	226.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$6.67	2.9%	0	319.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$6.67	2.9%	0	319.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$6.43	2.1%	0	239.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 132	$5.88	2.0%	0	242.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 118	$5.56	2.1%	0	271.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 111	$4.99	2.0%	0	287.4	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 125	$4.95	1.7%	0	255.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 93	$4.94	2.3%	0	341.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 108	$4.90	2.0%	0	297.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 103	$4.73	2.0%	0	309.8	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$4.60	2.7%	0	421.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$4.57	0.0%	0	3.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 88	$4.45	2.2%	0	360.9	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$4.43	3.5%	0	578.0	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$3.59	4.7%	0	958.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$3.50	5.4%	0	1120.9	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$3.38	5.0%	0	1079.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$3.30	5.7%	0	1261.4	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$3.12	3.4%	0	795.2	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$2.48	2.5%	0	718.5	0.00×
Charm \| Magmatudecharm · violet	1 in 27	$2.22	3.6%	1,182	1184.8	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 62	$1.82	1.3%	0	514.2	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$1.81	1.3%	0	520.5	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 81	$1.58	0.9%	0	396.0	0.00×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 169	$1.56	0.4%	0	188.4	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$1.24	1.0%	0	584.4	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$1.14	1.0%	0	667.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 48	$0.83	0.8%	0	670.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 45	$0.80	0.8%	0	709.0	0.00×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 55	$0.77	0.6%	0	581.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 38	$0.72	0.8%	0	839.9	0.00×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 44	$0.67	0.7%	0	724.9	0.00×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 41	$0.64	0.7%	0	779.2	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$0.44	0.4%	0	702.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 68	$0.41	0.3%	0	466.3	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 39	$0.40	0.5%	0	817.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 36	$0.38	0.5%	0	887.8	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 34	$0.37	0.5%	0	926.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$0.31	0.4%	0	948.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 41	$0.30	0.3%	0	769.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 39	$0.29	0.3%	0	814.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 39	$0.29	0.3%	0	814.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 21	$0.23	0.5%	0	1526.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 27	$0.23	0.4%	0	1178.4	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.18	0.6%	0	2261.0	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/toxic, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Crimson Webknife · sunnycan0uz`$2.60$1,010388.6x6d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4yt.com/dominoitaliano$2.60$321123.5x8d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$2.60$313120.5x2d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$2.60$312120.0x6d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 410/10 bop$2.60$310119.4x5d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covertchillmatesix$2.60$22285.38x7d

★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert$2.60$22285.33x3d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$2.60$22184.87x6d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covertemeal$2.60$22084.66x8d

★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert$2.60$22084.62x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Safety Netweapon · violet$2.60$3.551.37x4m

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violet$2.60$1.280.49x4m

M4A4 | Sheet Lightningweapon · violet$2.60$0.780.30x4m

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violetPlusek$2.60$1.280.49x4m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$2.60$5.922.28x4m

Glock-18 | Vogueweapon · pink$2.60$5.141.98x4m

Five-SeveN | Triumvirateweapon · violet$2.60$2.380.92x4m

MP9 | Modest Threatweapon · bluePlusek$2.60$0.290.11x4m

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptorweapon · pink$2.60$6.812.62x4m

Dual Berettas | Ventilatorsweapon · blue$2.60$0.390.15x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.60	87.50%	79
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$2.60	87.34%	79
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$2.60	87.44%	79
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$2.60	87.29%	79
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$2.60	87.19%	79
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$2.60	87.49%	79
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$2.60	87.51%	79
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$2.60	87.00%	79
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$2.60	87.51%	79
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.60	87.59%	79
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$2.60	86.99%	79
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$2.60	87.23%	79
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$2.60	87.51%	79
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$2.60	86.74%	79
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$2.60	87.70%	79
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$2.60	87.36%	79

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 0.6%covert 0.1%red 0.2%classified 1.1%Ancient 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%Legendary 3.2%pink 4.4%restricted 20.0%uncommon 1.1%#d32ee6 3.0%Classified 0.8%violet 10.2%mil spec 30.1%Mythical 5.8%#8847ff 11.7%blue 7.9%best hit $1,010 (388.6x)