TOXIC JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$102.22

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $89.44 from 79 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.73%

3,341 openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 21

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

75.33%±34.34147 openings

7 days

78.99%±12.531,123 openings

30 days

86.73%±7.293,341 openings

since tracking started

86.73%±7.293,341 openings

40.5%75.5%110.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	147	75.33%±34.3	−0.7σ	odds
7d	1,123	78.99%±12.5	−1.3σ	odds
30d	3,341	86.73%±7.29	−0.2σ	odds
All	3,341	86.73%±7.29	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values79 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,354 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$1,238	27.7%	0	67.1	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$840	18.8%	0	67.1	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$416	3.7%	0	26.8	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 25	$305	13.6%	144	134.2	1.07×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$219	9.8%	130	134.2	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$210	9.4%	144	134.2	1.07×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 25	$164	7.3%	127	134.2	0.95×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$128	1.1%	0	26.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 100	$87.55	1.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$71.74	0.6%	0	26.8	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$54.96	0.5%	0	26.8	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$53.92	0.5%	0	26.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$51.04	0.5%	0	26.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100	$46.94	0.5%	0	33.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 100	$34.36	0.4%	0	33.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$30.42	0.3%	0	33.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$27.62	0.3%	0	33.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 100	$18.92	0.2%	0	33.5	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$16.16	0.2%	0	33.5	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$15.10	0.2%	0	33.5	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$15.10	0.2%	0	33.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$14.98	0.2%	0	33.5	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$14.47	0.2%	0	33.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.66	0.2%	0	33.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 100	$13.37	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$13.20	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.94	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.07	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 125	$9.81	0.1%	0	26.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$9.03	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$8.70	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 75	$8.27	0.1%	0	44.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 125	$7.42	0.1%	0	26.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 125	$7.00	0.1%	0	26.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$6.89	0.1%	0	26.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$6.76	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 75	$6.56	0.1%	0	44.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$6.00	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$5.53	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$5.19	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 75	$4.96	0.1%	0	44.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$4.95	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$4.91	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$4.61	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$4.60	0.1%	0	67.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$4.57	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$4.51	0.1%	0	33.5	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 75	$4.35	0.1%	0	44.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.59	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 75	$3.53	0.1%	0	44.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 75	$3.40	0.1%	0	44.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.38	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 75	$3.12	0.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.49	0.1%	0	67.1	0.00×
Charm \| Magmatudecharm · violet	1 in 25	$2.22	0.1%	145	134.2	1.08×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 75	$1.88	0.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 75	$1.81	0.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 75	$1.58	0.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 100	$1.56	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 75	$1.24	0.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 75	$1.14	0.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 75	$0.83	0.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 75	$0.80	0.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$0.77	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 75	$0.72	0.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$0.67	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$0.64	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.44	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$0.41	0.0%	0	26.8	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 100	$0.40	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.38	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 100	$0.37	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.32	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 125	$0.30	0.0%	0	26.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$0.29	0.0%	0	26.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$0.29	0.0%	0	26.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.23	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$0.23	0.0%	0	26.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.20	0.0%	0	33.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/toxic-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Crimson Webknife · sunnykick/Bookerowski$106$1,09410.32x8d

★ Karambit | Crimson Webknife · sunnytriple$106$1,09410.32x8d

★ Karambit | Crimson Webknife · sunny$106$1,09410.32x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Sheet Lightningweapon · violet$102$0.780.01x5m

Five-SeveN | Triumvirateweapon · violet$102$2.270.02x5m

Charm | Magmatudecharm · violet$102$2.220.02x5m

Dual Berettas | Royal Consortsweapon · violetMar_Bat123 OsloRP$102$5.150.05x5m

SSG 08 | Fever Dreamweapon · violetcode VESU$102$3.550.03x1h

Dual Berettas | Ventilatorsweapon · blue$102$0.400.00x1h

AK-47 | Aphroditeweapon · red$102$18.980.19x1h

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Eugeniusz Krab$102$3052.98x1h

AWP | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$102$6.390.06x1h

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$102$3052.98x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$102	87.50%	79
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$103	87.50%	79
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$103	87.50%	79
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$103	87.50%	79
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$103	87.50%	79
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$104	87.50%	79
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$104	87.50%	79
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$104	87.50%	79
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$104	87.50%	79
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$104	87.50%	79
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$104	87.50%	79
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$105	87.50%	79
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$106	87.50%	79

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 1.0%covert 24.0%red 6.0%classified 9.6%Ancient 1.0%#eb4b4b 1.0%Legendary 4.8%restricted 13.7%pink 4.5%#d32ee6 2.8%uncommon 1.3%Classified 1.0%violet 9.0%mil spec 9.2%Mythical 2.3%#8847ff 6.0%blue 2.8%best hit $1,094 (10.32x)