TREAT INSIDE
A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
87.94%
EV $4.40 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.20%
152K openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.83% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.54% – 86.87%, 152,044 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/treat-inside, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $5.00 | 87.94% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.00 | 87.78% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $5.00 | 87.70% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.72% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.00 | 87.85% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $5.00 | 87.77% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $5.00 | 87.51% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.00 | 87.81% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $5.00 | 87.77% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.00 | 87.67% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.00 | 88.10% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.00 | 87.91% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.00 | 88.14% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.00 | 88.02% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%gold 0.0%red 0.1%Ancient 0.0%pink 7.9%violet 12.7%light blue 1.7%blue 32.3%gray 14.3%blueLight 6.7%consumer 7.5%#d32ce6 16.7%best hit $534 (106.7x)