TREAT INSIDE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$71.97
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $62.97 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.96%
8,559 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,575 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/treat-inside-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $71.97 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $72.13 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $71.93 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $71.98 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $71.93 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $71.77 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $71.93 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $71.90 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $71.92 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $71.90 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $72.70 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $71.92 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $72.70 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $72.25 | 87.49% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $73.28 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $71.87 | 87.51% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 16.1%gold 3.6%red 8.0%Ancient 0.9%pink 7.1%violet 14.3%blue 25.0%light blue 3.6%gray 7.1%blueLight 3.6%consumer 3.6%#d32ce6 7.1%best hit $534 (7.42x)