TUNG TUNG

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.87 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.08%
29.2K openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
90.73%±6.753,448 openings
7 days
87.56%±2.5224.5K openings
30 days
87.08%±2.3229.2K openings
since tracking started
87.08%±2.3229.2K openings
83.5%90.8%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3,44890.73%±6.75+0.9σodds
7d24.5K87.56%±2.52−0.3σodds
30d29.2K87.08%±2.32−0.8σodds
All29.2K87.08%±2.32−0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 100,000$2680.3%10.3—
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 33,333$1960.7%30.9—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 14,286$1020.8%22.00.98×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 11,111$65.710.7%02.60.00×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$57.050.7%12.90.34×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 3,333$23.850.8%28.80.23×
MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 5,000$12.060.3%05.80.00×
AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 405$5.571.6%072.20.00×
MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100$4.885.6%0290.90.00×
AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 252$4.382.0%0116.00.00×
AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 249$4.362.0%0117.10.00×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 180$4.242.7%0162.70.00×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary1 in 161$4.012.9%0182.00.00×
CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 58$2.825.5%495503.00.98×
MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 1,333$2.780.2%021.90.00×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon1 in 117$1.901.9%0250.60.00×
SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 228$1.670.8%0127.90.00×
P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 31$1.515.5%1,008938.81.07×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 91$1.391.7%0319.30.00×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 79$1.291.9%0370.40.00×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 73$1.241.9%0400.80.00×
UMP-45 | Plastique (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 192$1.240.7%0151.90.00×
Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 183$1.120.7%0159.50.00×
MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 74$1.101.7%0397.30.00×
MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 97$0.981.2%0301.70.00×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 17$0.966.3%01680.80.00×
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 41$0.902.5%0707.80.00×
Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 33$0.893.1%0888.90.00×
P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 64$0.841.5%0456.30.00×
SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 36$0.832.6%0812.70.00×
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 28$0.692.8%01027.10.00×
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 27$0.662.8%01092.80.00×
UMP-45 | Plastique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 35$0.602.0%0837.20.00×
UMP-45 | Plastique (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 32$0.572.0%0899.70.00×
UMP-45 | Plastique (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 30$0.542.1%0970.40.00×
Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 35$0.541.8%0831.90.00×
P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 34$0.541.8%0846.80.00×
P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$0.521.8%0893.00.00×
P90 | Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 31$0.501.8%0943.20.00×
MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 13$0.494.4%02290.70.00×
MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 34$0.461.6%0869.30.00×
SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 16$0.463.3%01855.80.00×
Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 28$0.461.9%01041.10.00×
Nova | Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 28$0.461.9%01041.10.00×
Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 13$0.464.0%02238.70.00×
MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 29$0.411.6%01021.20.00×
MP7 | Just Smile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 28$0.401.7%01057.10.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/tung-tung, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$1.0087.50%47
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC$1.0087.99%47
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$1.0088.17%47
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC$1.0088.06%47
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$1.0087.93%47
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$1.0088.47%47
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC$1.0088.03%47
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$1.0087.87%47
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC$1.0088.03%47
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC$1.0087.93%47
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$1.0088.23%47
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC$1.0088.22%47
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$1.0087.52%47
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC$1.0088.31%47
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC$1.0088.18%47
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC$1.0087.77%47
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 0.0%#8847ff 16.0%restricted 13.1%pink 4.3%Legendary 0.6%violet 44.7%uncommon 0.9%Mythical 20.4%best hit $266 (266.0x)