WAVE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$3.35
Advertised RTP
87.44%
EV $2.93 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.21%
36.7K openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.71% – 86.71%, 36,713 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/wave-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.44%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.35 | 87.44% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $3.37 | 87.53% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.39 | 87.54% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.37 | 87.47% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $3.39 | 87.41% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $3.37 | 87.61% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $3.38 | 87.58% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $3.24 | 87.58% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $3.32 | 87.41% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $3.31 | 87.60% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.36 | 87.49% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.31 | 87.60% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.36 | 87.39% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $3.39 | 87.49% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.36 | 87.39% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $3.39 | 87.49% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $3.40 | 87.51% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.50 | 87.50% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 33.3%exotic 3.3%violet 30.0%Mythical 6.7%#8847ff 3.3%blue 16.7%Legendary 3.3%high 3.3%best hit —