WHITE WIDOW
A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
86.90%
EV $0.87 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.19%
306K openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.37% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.43% – 85.94%, 306,487 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 307K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/white-widow, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.00 | 86.90% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.00 | 86.82% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.00 | 86.56% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1.00 | 87.85% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.00 | 87.31% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.00 | 86.86% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1.00 | 86.68% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.00 | 87.74% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $1.00 | 87.95% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1.00 | 87.85% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.00 | 87.31% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.00 | 87.94% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $1.00 | 88.22% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.00 | 87.73% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%Legendary 0.0%Mythical 0.0%pink 0.7%classified 0.0%violet 43.2%restricted 0.0%uncommon 0.2%blue 10.6%gray 31.4%#d32ce6 3.3%grey 5.0%#8847ff 5.5%best hit $350 (350.4x)