WHITE WIDOW JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$22.36
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $19.57 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.66%
21.6K openings, odds method
Variance
8.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/white-widow-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $22.36 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $22.54 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $21.93 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $22.26 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $21.91 | 87.52% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $21.93 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $21.92 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $22.24 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $21.91 | 87.52% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $21.90 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $22.24 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $22.28 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $22.32 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $22.08 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $22.27 | 87.52% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $22.67 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $22.77 | 87.50% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.4%red 3.7%Legendary 1.2%Mythical 0.9%pink 8.6%classified 3.7%violet 26.9%restricted 1.9%uncommon 1.2%blue 11.1%gray 22.2%#d32ce6 3.7%grey 3.7%#8847ff 3.7%best hit —