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WORKSHOP

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$2.75
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.41 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.46%
16.3K openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
82.00%±10.661,518 openings
7 days
89.65%±3.5513.4K openings
30 days
88.46%±3.2216.3K openings
since tracking started
88.46%±3.2216.3K openings
70.5%82.3%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,51882.00%±10.7−1.0σodds
7d13.4K89.65%±3.55+1.2σodds
30d16.3K88.46%±3.22+0.6σodds
All16.3K88.46%±3.22+0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 33,333$3970.5%00.5—
★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 14,286$2680.8%01.10.00×
★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 5,000$1951.6%33.30.92×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 20,000$1220.3%00.8—
★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,639$81.552.1%1110.01.10×
AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,222$54.961.0%07.40.00×
AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 2,128$53.921.1%07.70.00×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 4,545$53.880.5%03.60.00×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 2,857$42.090.6%05.70.00×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 1,695$32.200.8%09.70.00×
AK-47 | Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 3,448$27.140.3%04.70.00×
AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 1,818$19.780.5%09.00.00×
AK-47 | Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 909$13.850.6%018.00.00×
AK-47 | Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 885$13.650.6%018.50.00×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 1,176$13.650.5%013.90.00×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 1,031$12.750.5%015.90.00×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,000$12.550.5%016.40.00×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 962$12.340.5%017.00.00×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 29$9.7714.1%0569.20.00×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 133$6.672.1%0123.00.00×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 133$6.672.1%0123.00.00×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 124$6.432.2%0132.40.00×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified1 in 102$5.882.4%0159.70.00×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 92$5.562.5%0178.70.00×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 239$5.250.9%068.40.00×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 72$4.942.8%0226.30.00×
MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 87$4.882.3%0187.70.00×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 86$4.802.3%0190.90.00×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 67$4.242.6%0244.60.00×
MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 65$4.222.7%0251.00.00×
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 78$4.212.3%0211.10.00×
MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 63$4.162.7%0258.40.00×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary1 in 23$4.017.3%0719.10.00×
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 20$3.497.2%0808.10.00×
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 20$3.447.3%0831.80.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 47$3.222.8%0345.60.00×
Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Minimal Wear)weapon · 31 in 16$3.057.8%01012.50.00×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 133$2.200.7%0122.70.00×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 118$2.080.7%0138.70.00×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 113$2.020.7%0145.00.00×
MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 85$1.971.0%0193.60.00×
Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 55$1.911.5%0299.90.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 139$1.870.6%0117.80.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 106$1.560.6%0154.80.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 83$1.330.7%0196.50.00×
MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 47$1.331.2%0349.00.00×
MAG-7 | Popdog (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 15$0.381.1%1,1361093.61.04×
UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue13.8%$0.090.5%2,1632251.70.96×
SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)weapon · blue13.7%$0.090.5%2,2532247.01.00×
XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue13.7%$0.090.5%2,2292247.00.99×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/workshop, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Loreknife · sunny$2.75$328119.2x
★ Bayonet | Loreknife · sunnysienafit11$2.75$325118.3x
★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rarenexujanek$2.75$19671.23x
★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare$2.75$19069.13x
★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare$2.75$18768.03x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$2.75$0.090.03x
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberrationweapon · pink$2.75$4.191.52x
MAG-7 | Popdog (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.75$0.380.14x
MP7 | Special Deliveryweapon · violettivson$2.75$1.560.57x
XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueNRForceTomi$2.75$0.090.03x
XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$2.75$0.090.03x
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptorweapon · pink$2.75$8.503.09x
P2000 | Wicked Sickweapon · pinktivson$2.75$3.551.29x
UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueVanish$2.75$0.090.03x
AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$2.75$5.401.96x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$2.7587.50%50
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC$2.7587.58%50
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$2.7587.79%50
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC$2.7587.28%50
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$2.7587.25%50
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$2.7587.60%50
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC$2.7587.17%50
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC$2.7587.60%50
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC$2.7587.27%50
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$2.7587.77%50
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC$2.7587.12%50
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$2.7587.27%50
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC$2.7587.72%50
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC$2.7587.36%50
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC$2.7587.18%50
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC$2.7587.27%50
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC$2.7587.56%50
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC$2.7587.57%50
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 6.2%covert 0.2%rare 0.1%Ancient 0.0%red 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.1%pink 15.2%classified 3.8%Legendary 10.1%#d32ee6 2.1%Classified 1.0%restricted 3.2%Mythical 4.2%#8847ff 2.7%violet 2.9%mil spec 6.7%blue 41.2%best hit $328 (119.2x)