WORKSHOP JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$45.26
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $39.60 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.72%
927 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 938 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/workshop-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $45.26 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $45.79 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $45.31 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $45.51 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $45.84 | 87.49% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $46.02 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $45.89 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $46.02 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $45.88 | 87.49% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $46.03 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $45.90 | 87.49% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $46.03 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $46.29 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $46.83 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $46.62 | 87.50% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 2.5%covert 15.0%rare 6.3%Ancient 2.5%red 5.0%#eb4b4b 1.3%pink 10.8%classified 8.3%Legendary 6.3%#d32ee6 2.9%Classified 1.7%restricted 6.3%Mythical 3.8%#8847ff 3.8%violet 3.8%mil spec 5.0%blue 15.0%best hit —