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XAK1

A case on Casehug (CREATORS FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$2.25
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $1.97 from 75 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.84%
26.7K openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
85.86%±8.113,010 openings
7 days
86.36%±2.9922.7K openings
30 days
85.84%±2.7626.7K openings
since tracking started
85.84%±2.7626.7K openings
77.0%85.8%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3,01085.86%±8.11−0.4σodds
7d22.7K86.36%±2.99−0.7σodds
30d26.7K85.84%±2.76−1.1σodds
All26.7K85.84%±2.76−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values75 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby1 in 33,333$5950.9%10.8—
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald1 in 14,286$2340.8%01.90.00×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 7,692$66.230.4%03.50.00×
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 3,333$65.411.0%28.00.25×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$59.090.6%05.40.00×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$55.230.8%08.00.00×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$54.850.8%08.00.00×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 4,000$54.680.7%06.70.00×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 4,167$51.700.6%06.40.00×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 3,571$48.870.7%07.50.00×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$40.120.8%010.70.00×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 2,000$39.111.0%013.40.00×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 3,333$38.080.6%08.00.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 25,000$34.780.1%01.10.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 7,692$17.070.1%03.50.00×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce61 in 5,556$16.910.2%04.80.00×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 2,500$8.900.2%010.70.00×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 1,515$8.800.3%017.70.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 2,083$8.730.2%012.90.00×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 105$8.514.1%0255.80.00×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 102$8.404.2%0262.70.00×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 166$7.252.2%0161.20.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 92$6.743.7%0289.80.00×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified1 in 81$5.883.7%0330.00.00×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 114$5.562.5%0234.60.00×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 89$5.122.9%0302.10.00×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 88$5.102.9%0304.50.00×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 90$4.942.8%0297.00.00×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 131$4.731.8%0204.30.00×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 72$4.613.3%0372.50.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 63$4.433.6%0426.10.00×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical1 in 90$3.922.2%0297.30.00×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 72$3.502.5%0372.50.00×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical1 in 68$3.302.5%0395.60.00×
AK-47 | Crossfade (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 97$3.301.7%0274.80.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 114$3.231.4%0235.10.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 91$3.221.8%0295.10.00×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 38$2.683.6%0706.50.00×
AK-47 | Crossfade (Well-Worn)weapon · common1 in 61$2.622.2%0436.00.00×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 36$2.603.7%0751.00.00×
AK-47 | Crossfade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common1 in 54$2.452.3%0498.40.00×
AK-47 | Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 49$2.342.4%0546.40.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet19.6%$1.8718.6%05255.40.00×
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 68$1.581.2%421396.41.06×
SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 435$1.580.2%061.60.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 155$1.560.5%0172.50.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 145$1.300.5%0185.10.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 143$1.290.5%0187.50.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 1,724$1.180.0%015.50.00×
PP-Bizon | RMX (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 1,613$0.990.0%016.60.00×
SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 193$0.950.2%0138.70.00×
SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 174$0.890.3%0154.00.00×
SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 141$0.780.3%0190.20.00×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 1,429$0.780.0%018.70.00×
UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 1,031$0.760.0%026.00.00×
Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 38$0.610.8%703701.71.00×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 599$0.350.0%044.70.00×
PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 194$0.260.1%0138.20.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 138$0.240.1%0193.60.00×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 204$0.230.1%0131.50.00×
UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 122$0.200.1%0218.80.00×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 155$0.150.0%0173.00.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 58$0.140.1%0458.50.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 58$0.140.1%0458.50.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 58$0.140.1%0458.50.00×
PP-Bizon | RMX (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 36$0.090.1%0753.40.00×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 45$0.090.1%0588.90.00×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 38$0.080.1%0711.10.00×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 38$0.080.1%0711.10.00×
UMP-45 | Fragment (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 28$0.080.1%0947.50.00×
UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 28$0.080.1%0947.50.00×
PP-Bizon | RMX (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 19$0.060.2%01440.90.00×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 36$0.060.1%0748.30.00×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 36$0.060.1%0748.30.00×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 27$0.050.1%01001.40.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/xak1, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$2.25$609270.8x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pink♱$2.25$5.512.45x
AK-47 | Safety Netweapon · violetK4b4n$2.25$3.731.66x
AK-47 | Crossfadeweapon · blue♱$2.25$2.591.15x
PP-Bizon | RMXweapon · blueK4b4n$2.25$0.090.04x
M4A4 | Zubastickweapon · blueK4b4n$2.25$0.100.04x
M4A4 | Zubastickweapon · blueK4b4n$2.25$0.100.04x
PP-Bizon | RMXweapon · blueK4b4n$2.25$0.090.04x
Dual Berettas | Twin Turboweapon · pinkK4b4n$2.25$3.101.38x
M4A1-S | Glitched Paintweapon · violetK4b4n$2.25$1.930.86x
M4A4 | Zubastickweapon · blueK4b4n$2.25$0.100.04x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$2.2587.50%75
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC$2.2587.67%75
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC$2.2587.14%75
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC$2.2587.67%75
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$2.2587.38%75
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC$2.2587.40%75
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC$2.2587.71%75
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$2.2587.22%75
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC$2.2587.26%75
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$2.2587.45%75
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC$2.2587.28%75
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC$2.2587.71%75
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC$2.2587.49%75
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC$2.2586.64%75
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC$2.2587.01%75
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%red 0.1%Ancient 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.2%pink 6.5%uncommon 1.8%#d32ce6 0.0%Legendary 2.3%classified 1.6%Classified 5.2%#d32ee6 1.1%restricted 3.6%Mythical 5.3%blue 26.0%common 3.5%violet 20.3%Rare 1.0%#4b69ff 16.8%milspec 4.9%best hit $609 (270.8x)