XAK1 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$55.22

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $48.32 from 75 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.11%

2,102 openings, odds method

Variance

5.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.84%±32.11197 openings

7 days

84.34%±10.201,961 openings

30 days

86.11%±9.852,102 openings

since tracking started

86.11%±9.852,102 openings

45.0%77.8%110.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	197	77.84%±32.1	−0.6σ	odds
7d	1,961	84.34%±10.2	−0.6σ	odds
30d	2,102	86.11%±9.85	−0.3σ	odds
All	2,102	86.11%±9.85	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values75 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,391 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 23	$595	53.6%	105	103.9	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 23	$235	21.1%	96	103.9	0.92×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 23	$73.60	6.6%	86	103.9	0.83×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 92	$67.06	1.5%	0	26.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$59.09	1.8%	0	34.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$55.49	1.2%	0	26.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$55.25	1.7%	0	34.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$54.68	1.2%	0	26.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$53.93	1.6%	0	34.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$50.40	1.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$40.12	1.2%	0	34.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 69	$39.09	1.2%	0	34.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 69	$38.39	1.2%	0	34.7	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 115	$34.98	0.6%	0	20.8	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 115	$17.93	0.3%	0	20.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 92	$15.51	0.3%	0	26.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 92	$9.03	0.2%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 92	$8.87	0.2%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$8.61	0.2%	0	26.0	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 115	$8.27	0.1%	0	20.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 92	$8.17	0.2%	0	26.0	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$7.25	0.2%	0	34.6	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 115	$6.56	0.1%	0	20.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 92	$6.00	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 92	$5.53	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$5.42	0.2%	0	34.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 92	$5.19	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 69	$5.09	0.2%	0	34.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$4.96	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 69	$4.61	0.1%	0	34.7	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 115	$4.35	0.1%	0	20.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 92	$3.76	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 92	$3.53	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$3.40	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 69	$3.28	0.1%	0	34.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$3.12	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 69	$3.00	0.1%	0	34.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$2.71	0.1%	0	34.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 69	$2.71	0.1%	0	34.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 92	$2.62	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 92	$2.43	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$2.36	0.1%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 69	$1.87	0.1%	0	34.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 92	$1.58	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$1.58	0.1%	88	104.0	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 69	$1.53	0.0%	0	34.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 69	$1.29	0.0%	0	34.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 69	$1.29	0.0%	0	34.6	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$1.24	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$0.95	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$0.93	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$0.93	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 115	$0.81	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$0.78	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$0.76	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Brake Light (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.61	0.1%	98	104.0	0.94×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 115	$0.35	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 115	$0.26	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$0.26	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 115	$0.24	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$0.20	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 115	$0.15	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$0.14	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$0.14	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$0.14	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$0.09	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 115	$0.09	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$0.09	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 115	$0.08	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 115	$0.08	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$0.08	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$0.06	0.0%	0	26.0	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 115	$0.06	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$0.06	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$0.05	0.0%	0	20.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/xak1-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$56.50$61110.81x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby-yuvenx$56.50$61110.81x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubySPARKY$56.50$61110.81x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$56.50$61110.81x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyMalutki Kamilek$56.50$61110.81x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$56.50$61110.81x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$56.50$61110.81x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Safety Netweapon · violet$54.71$3.860.07x24m

Dual Berettas | Twin Turboweapon · pink$54.71$4.180.08x24m

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)weapon · bluefиαfєк✞$54.71$0.610.01x24m

MP5-SD | Gold Leafweapon · milspec$54.71$0.130.00x25m

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)weapon · blue$54.71$0.610.01x25m

AK-47 | Asiimovweapon · redfиαfєк✞$54.71$55.371.01x25m

MP5-SD | Gold Leafweapon · milspec????Tysiak™$54.71$0.130.00x1h

Dual Berettas | Twin Turboweapon · pink????Tysiak™$54.71$4.180.08x1h

PP-Bizon | RMXweapon · blueziomek$54.71$0.350.01x2h

SG 553 | Berry Gel Coatweapon · blueTidinTidin roadto19k CS2.ME$54.71$1.050.02x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$55.22	87.50%	75
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$54.71	87.50%	75
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$55.22	87.50%	75
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$55.63	87.49%	75
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$55.85	87.51%	75
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$55.32	87.50%	75
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$55.45	87.49%	75
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$56.40	87.50%	75
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$56.33	87.49%	75
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$56.17	87.50%	75
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$56.31	87.50%	75
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$56.55	87.50%	75
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$56.17	87.50%	75
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$56.31	87.50%	75
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$56.50	87.49%	75
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$56.31	87.50%	75
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$56.50	87.49%	75

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 4.3%red 5.8%extraordinary 4.3%Ancient 2.5%covert 9.1%pink 7.7%uncommon 3.2%#d32ce6 1.1%Legendary 3.6%classified 2.5%Classified 4.0%#d32ee6 1.1%restricted 6.5%Mythical 6.5%blue 20.4%common 2.2%violet 2.9%Rare 2.0%#4b69ff 8.5%milspec 1.7%best hit $611 (10.81x)