XSTREAM
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$4.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $3.50 from 59 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.22%
13.8K openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.57% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.95% – 87.48%, 13,755 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/xstream, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.00 | 87.27% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.00 | 87.86% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $4.00 | 87.30% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $4.00 | 86.93% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.79% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $4.00 | 87.62% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $4.00 | 87.71% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $4.00 | 87.55% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $4.00 | 87.35% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.00 | 87.47% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $4.00 | 87.58% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $4.00 | 87.80% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.49% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $4.00 | 87.43% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $4.00 | 87.84% | 59 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.00 | 88.00% | 59 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.6%Ancient 0.1%Covert 0.0%red 0.1%pink 16.8%uncommon 3.3%#d32ce6 0.8%Legendary 2.5%restricted 13.1%rare 0.7%Classified 0.9%violet 28.5%#d32ee6 1.3%Mythical 6.3%blue 6.0%light blue 6.1%#8847ff 1.4%mil spec 11.5%best hit $491 (122.6x)