XSTREAM JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$45.04
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $39.41 from 59 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.39%
1,243 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,337 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/xstream-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $45.04 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $44.88 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $45.08 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $45.14 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $45.30 | 87.51% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $44.87 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $43.43 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $42.24 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $43.69 | 87.51% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $44.85 | 87.51% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $43.64 | 84.70% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $45.16 | 87.51% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $43.64 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $45.29 | 87.49% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $44.73 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $44.57 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $44.73 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $44.57 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $44.73 | 87.50% | 59 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.5%classified 5.4%Ancient 5.4%Covert 1.1%red 4.3%pink 19.2%uncommon 2.9%#d32ce6 2.2%Legendary 3.3%restricted 12.7%rare 1.1%Classified 1.1%violet 13.4%#d32ee6 1.1%Mythical 5.1%blue 4.3%light blue 4.3%#8847ff 2.2%mil spec 4.3%best hit $507 (11.19x)