1% RTX
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$20.84
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $18.65 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.07%
1,644 openings, odds method
Variance
24.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,644 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASUS TUF Gaming GeForce RTX™ 4090 OG OC Edition Gaming Graphics Cardother | 1 in 2,000 | $2,010 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4080other | 1 in 1,429 | $1,760 | 6.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| PNY GeForce RTX™ 4070 Superother | 1 in 667 | $1,450 | 11.7% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.03× |
| MSI GeForce RTX 4070 Ti Superother | 1 in 667 | $900 | 7.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| MSI Gaming GeForce RTX 3060other | 1 in 345 | $630 | 9.8% | 1 | 4.8 | 0.21× |
| ASUS Dual GeForce RTX™ 4060 Ti White OC Edition 8GB GDDR6other | 1 in 345 | $620 | 9.6% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.05× |
| Amazon Basics Low-Profile Wired USB Keyboard with US Layoutother | 1 in 11 | $18.00 | 8.7% | 158 | 148.0 | 1.07× |
| Assetto Corsa Competizione (PC) - Steam Key - GLOBALother | 10.0% | $16.00 | 8.6% | 175 | 164.4 | 1.06× |
| Noctua NF-P12 redux-1700 PWM, High Performance Cooling Fanother | 10.0% | $15.95 | 8.6% | 170 | 164.4 | 1.03× |
| Logitech Mouse Pad - Studio Seriesother | 20.0% | $9.66 | 10.4% | 315 | 328.8 | 0.96× |
| Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition Steam Key GLOBALother | 25.0% | $6.97 | 9.3% | 388 | 411.0 | 0.94× |
| LEGO Marvel Super Heroes (PC) - Steam Key - GLOBALother | 25.0% | $3.10 | 4.2% | 427 | 411.0 | 1.04× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.84 | 89.50% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $1,450 (69.58x)