1% Watch
A box on Cases.gg (Cheap), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$3.24
Advertised RTP
89.46%
EV $2.90 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.67%
5,384 openings, odds method
Variance
126.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 250
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,384 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.46%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.24 | 89.46% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $510 (157.4x)