AirDrop

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$308.61

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $276.20 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

131.98%

60 openings, odds method

Variance

9.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

60 openings · below min

30 days

60 openings · below min

since tracking started

60 openings · below min

55.5%132.0%208.5%

Small sample. 60 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	60	131.98%±76.0	—	odds
30d	60	131.98%±76.0	—	odds
All	60	131.98%±76.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MacBook Pro, Space Black, 16 Inch, M3 Maxother	1 in 100	$4,800	17.4%	1	0.6	—
Apple Vision Pro - 1TBother	1 in 100	$4,600	16.7%	0	0.6	—
Apple Vision Pro - 256GBother	1 in 100	$3,849	13.9%	2	0.6	—
Apple 2023 MacBook Pro Laptop M3 Max chip with 14‑core CPU, 30‑core GPU: 16.2-inch Liquid Retina XDR Display, 36GB Unified Memory, 1TB SSD Storageother	1 in 100	$3,500	12.7%	0	0.6	—
iPad Pro, 13-inch, Space Black, 2TBother	1 in 100	$2,800	10.1%	2	0.6	—
Apple 2023 MacBook Pro Laptop M3 Pro chip with 12‑core CPU, 18‑core GPU: 16.2-inch Liquid Retina XDR Display, 36GB Unified Memory, 512GB SSD Storage.other	1 in 100	$2,639	9.6%	1	0.6	—
Apple 2023 iMac All-in-One Desktop Computer with M3 chip: 8-core CPU, 10-core GPU, 24-inch Retina Display, 8GB Unified Memory, 512GB SSD Storageother	1 in 100	$1,700	6.2%	0	0.6	—
iPhone 17 Pro Max, Silver, 256 GBother	1 in 100	$1,500	5.4%	1	0.6	—
iPhone 16 Pro, Desert Titanium, 128 GBother	1 in 100	$1,200	4.3%	1	0.6	—
Iphone 17 Lavender, 256 GBother	1 in 100	$960	3.5%	1	0.6	—
Granny Smith Appleother	90.0%	$0.80	0.3%	51	54.0	0.94×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.