Apple

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$96.50

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $86.36 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.63%

458 openings, odds method

Variance

10.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 32

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

42 openings · below min

7 days

83.80%±33.77362 openings

30 days

87.63%±30.02458 openings

since tracking started

87.63%±30.02458 openings

-0.5%85.8%172.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	42	72.34%±99.1	—	odds
7d	362	83.80%±33.8	−0.3σ	odds
30d	458	87.63%±30.0	−0.1σ	odds
All	458	87.63%±30.0	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 458 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MacBook Pro, Space Black, 16 Inch, M3 Maxother	1 in 1,000	$4,800	5.6%	1	0.5	—
Apple Vision Pro - 256GBother	1 in 1,000	$3,849	4.5%	1	0.5	—
iPad Pro, 13-inch, Space Black, 2TBother	1 in 500	$2,800	6.5%	1	0.9	—
Apple Watch Hermès Ultra 2 GPS + Cellular, 49mm Natural Titanium Case with Bleu Nuit En Merother	1 in 500	$1,680	3.9%	3	0.9	—
iPhone 16 Pro Max, Black Titanium, 256 GBother	1 in 200	$1,440	8.3%	1	2.3	0.44×
iPhone 16 Pro, Natural Titanium, 128 GBother	1 in 200	$1,200	6.9%	0	2.3	0.00×
Apple Watch Ultra 2, Titanium Milanese Loopother	1 in 133	$1,080	9.4%	1	3.4	0.29×
iPhone 16, Teal, 128 GBother	1 in 133	$900	7.8%	4	3.4	1.16×
iPad Air, 11-inch, Space Gray, 128 GBother	1 in 111	$720	7.5%	3	4.1	0.73×
AirPods Max, Blueother	1 in 100	$660	7.6%	4	4.6	0.87×
Apple Watch Series 10, Alluminum, 42mmother	1 in 100	$480	5.6%	1	4.6	0.22×
Apple TV 4K, Wi-Fi + Ethernetother	1 in 40	$310	9.0%	9	11.5	0.79×
Apple Watch SE, Silver, 40mmother	1 in 100	$300	3.5%	8	4.6	1.75×
Apple AirPods 4other	1 in 100	$240	2.8%	6	4.6	1.31×
Apple AirTag 4 Packother	1 in 40	$140	4.1%	10	11.5	0.87×
Apple Gift Card - $50other	10.0%	$50.00	5.8%	45	45.8	0.98×
USB-C Cableother	10.0%	$5.00	0.6%	50	45.8	1.09×
$1 Voucherother	67.0%	$1.00	0.8%	310	306.9	1.01×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MacBook Pro, Space Black, 16 Inch, M3 Maxother$96.50$4,80049.74x5d

Apple Vision Pro - 256GBother$96.50$3,84939.89x7d

iPad Pro, 13-inch, Space Black, 2TBother$96.50$2,80029.02x2d

Apple Watch Hermès Ultra 2 GPS + Cellular, 49mm Natural Titanium Case with Bleu Nuit En Merother$96.50$1,68017.41x4d

iPhone 16 Pro Max, Black Titanium, 256 GBother✪ DubbleuJB$96.50$1,44014.92x5d

Apple Watch Ultra 2, Titanium Milanese Loopother$96.50$1,08011.19x5d

iPhone 16, Teal, 128 GBother$96.50$9009.33x19h

iPhone 16, Teal, 128 GBother$96.50$9009.33x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

$1 Voucherother$96.50$1.000.01x8h

AirPods Max, Blueother$96.50$6606.84x8h

$1 Voucherother$96.50$1.000.01x8h

USB-C Cableother$96.50$5.000.05x8h

USB-C CableotherNcthcfoodie code DGN$96.50$5.000.05x8h

$1 Voucherother$96.50$1.000.01x8h

USB-C Cableother$96.50$5.000.05x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$96.50	89.49%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $4,800 (49.74x)