Apples & Apples
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$52.25
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $46.76 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.46%
647 openings, odds method
Variance
20.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 59
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (19.87% – 89.04%, 647 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 647 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Apple 2023 MacBook Pro Laptop M3 Pro chip with 12‑core CPU, 18‑core GPU: 16.2-inch Liquid Retina XDR Display, 36GB Unified Memory, 512GB SSD Storage.other✪ DubbleuJB$52.25$2,63950.51x
Apple 2023 iMac All-in-One Desktop Computer with M3 chip: 8-core CPU, 10-core GPU, 24-inch Retina Display, 8GB Unified Memory, 512GB SSD Storageother$52.25$1,70032.54x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $52.25 | 89.50% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $2,639 (50.51x)