Aquatic Arcana

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$3.43

Advertised RTP

89.42%

EV $3.07 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

65.96%

1,405 openings, odds method

Variance

9.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

50.76%±50.50147 openings

7 days

64.99%±18.091,146 openings

30 days

65.96%±16.341,405 openings

since tracking started

65.96%±16.341,405 openings

-0.5%50.8%102.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.42% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (49.63% – 82.30%, 1,405 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	147	50.76%±50.5	−1.5σ	odds
7d	1,146	64.99%±18.1	−2.6σ	odds
30d	1,405	65.96%±16.3	−2.8σ	odds
All	1,405	65.96%±16.3	−2.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,405 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Merfolk of the Pearl Trident (V.2)other	1 in 286	$159	18.1%	1	4.9	0.20×
Duel Decks: Merfolk vs. Goblins: Full Setother	1 in 67	$25.00	12.2%	15	21.1	0.71×
Duel Decks: Merfolk vs. Goblins: 2-Player Duel Playmatother	1 in 50	$20.00	13.0%	23	28.1	0.82×
Merfolk of the Pearl Tridentother	1 in 50	$20.00	13.0%	23	28.1	0.82×
Gushother	1 in 50	$19.70	12.8%	20	28.1	0.71×
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan "Merfolk" Storage Boxother	1 in 29	$5.00	5.7%	48	49.2	0.98×
Merfolk Token (Blue 1/1 Hexproof) (V.2)other	1 in 25	$4.00	5.2%	58	56.2	1.03×
Merfolk Wizard Token (Blue 1/1)other	1 in 20	$3.50	5.7%	77	70.3	1.10×
Merfolk Token (Blue 1/1 Hexproof)other	1 in 20	$2.00	3.3%	58	70.3	0.83×
Merfolk Token (Blue 1/1) (V.1)other	1 in 20	$1.70	2.8%	73	70.3	1.04×
Merfolk Relic Token (Foil)other	1 in 14	$1.00	2.3%	100	100.5	1.00×
River Merfolkother	1 in 13	$0.65	1.6%	121	105.4	1.15×
Merfolk Assassinother	1 in 13	$0.60	1.5%	79	105.4	0.75×
Merfolk Tricksterother	1 in 13	$0.26	0.6%	123	105.4	1.17×
Night of the Flying Merfolkother	10.0%	$0.20	0.7%	158	140.5	1.12×
Merfolk Sovereignother	10.0%	$0.17	0.6%	145	140.5	1.03×
Merfolk Branchwalkerother	10.0%	$0.15	0.5%	132	140.5	0.94×
Darting Merfolkother	10.0%	$0.10	0.3%	151	140.5	1.07×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Merfolk Assassinother$3.43$0.600.17x1h

Night of the Flying Merfolkother$3.43$0.200.06x1h

Merfolk Branchwalkerother$3.43$0.150.04x1h

River Merfolkother$3.43$0.650.19x1h

River Merfolkotherdeja vu$3.43$0.650.19x1h

Night of the Flying Merfolkother$3.43$0.200.06x1h

Darting Merfolkother$3.43$0.100.03x1h

Merfolk Token (Blue 1/1 Hexproof) (V.2)other$3.43$4.001.17x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.42%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.43	89.42%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —