Attached

A box on Cases.gg (Outdoor), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$42.27

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $37.83 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.94%

270 openings, odds method

Variance

10.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 36

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

60 openings · below min

7 days

89.12%±41.01240 openings

30 days

86.94%±38.66270 openings

since tracking started

86.94%±38.66270 openings

-0.5%66.0%132.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	60	49.74%±82.0	—	odds
7d	240	89.12%±41.0	−0.0σ	odds
30d	270	86.94%±38.7	−0.1σ	odds
All	270	86.94%±38.7	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 270 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Holographic Hybrid Sight - EXPS3-4 with G45 Magnifierother	1 in 333	$1,451	11.5%	0	0.8	—
Trijicon Tenmile First Focal Plane (FFP) Riflescopeother	1 in 333	$990	7.9%	0	0.8	—
EOTECH XPS2-300 Blackout Holographic Weapon Sightother	1 in 250	$666	7.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
Holosun HS510C & HM3X Comboother	1 in 200	$582	7.7%	2	1.4	1.48×
Trijicon RMR Type 2 3.25 MOA Adjustable LED Red Dot Sightother	1 in 200	$579	7.7%	3	1.4	2.22×
HOLOSUN Red Multi-Reticle, 7075other	1 in 133	$480	9.5%	4	2.0	1.98×
SIG SAUER Tango-MSR FFP 1-6X24mm Scopeother	1 in 100	$373	9.9%	4	2.7	1.48×
HOLOSUN LS117 Single Red/Green Laser for Long Gunsother	1 in 133	$371	7.4%	2	2.0	0.99×
SIG SAUER ROMEO7 2 MOA Red Dot Sightother	1 in 100	$250	6.6%	1	2.7	0.37×
SIG SAUER ROMEO5 1X20mm 2 MOA Red Dot Reticleother	1 in 100	$165	4.4%	2	2.7	0.74×
Vortex Optics Crossfire IIother	1 in 100	$160	4.2%	2	2.7	0.74×
Magpul Rifle Bipodother	1 in 100	$160	4.2%	3	2.7	1.11×
Magpul MBUS 3 Front & Rear Sight Set - Blackother	1 in 67	$85.75	3.4%	6	4.0	1.48×
Magpul MBUS 3 Flip-Up Backup Iron Sights - Flat Dark Earthother	1 in 50	$69.00	3.6%	13	5.4	2.41×
Magpul MBUS 3 Flip-Up Backup Iron Sights - Flat Dark Earthother	1 in 50	$37.66	2.0%	13	5.4	2.41×
Magpul M-LOK Polymer Picatinny Accessory Rail - 9 Slotother	1 in 33	$15.15	1.2%	10	8.1	1.23×
Magpul M-LOK Polymer Picatinny Accessory Rail - 5 Slotother	1 in 33	$9.99	0.8%	7	8.1	0.86×
$0.50 Voucherother	80.0%	$0.50	1.1%	211	216.0	0.98×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Holosun HS510C & HM3X Comboother$42.27$58213.77x2d

Holosun HS510C & HM3X Comboother$42.27$58213.77x3d

Trijicon RMR Type 2 3.25 MOA Adjustable LED Red Dot Sightother$42.27$57913.70x2h

Trijicon RMR Type 2 3.25 MOA Adjustable LED Red Dot Sightotherstrunmercury45$42.27$57913.70x2d

Trijicon RMR Type 2 3.25 MOA Adjustable LED Red Dot Sightother$42.27$57913.70x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Magpul M-LOK Polymer Picatinny Accessory Rail - 5 Slotother$42.27$9.990.24x2h

$0.50 Voucherother$42.27$0.500.01x2h

Trijicon RMR Type 2 3.25 MOA Adjustable LED Red Dot Sightother$42.27$57913.70x2h

Magpul M-LOK Polymer Picatinny Accessory Rail - 5 Slotother$42.27$9.990.24x2h

Vortex Optics Crossfire IIother$42.27$1603.79x2h

Magpul M-LOK Polymer Picatinny Accessory Rail - 9 Slotother$42.27$15.150.36x2h

$0.50 Voucherother$42.27$0.500.01x6h

$0.50 VoucherotherFriendly Chipmunk$42.27$0.500.01x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$42.27	89.49%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $582 (13.77x)