Baseball

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$77.92

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $69.74 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

120.43%

62 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

62 openings · below min

30 days

62 openings · below min

since tracking started

62 openings · below min

81.0%232.2%383.5%

Small sample. 62 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	258.81%±124.0	—	odds
7d	62	120.43%±38.6	—	odds
30d	62	120.43%±38.6	—	odds
All	62	120.43%±38.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Rickey Henderson Oakland Athletics Autographed Fanatics Authentic Gray Mitchell & Ness Authentic Jerseyother	1 in 250	$1,100	6.3%	1	0.2	—
Autographed New York Yankees Aaron Judge Fanatics Authentic Baseballother	1 in 133	$770	8.3%	1	0.5	—
Ken Griffey Jr. Seattle Mariners Autographed 1989 Donurss Rated Rookie Silver Ink #33 Beckett Fanatics Witnessed Authenticated Rookie Cardother	1 in 118	$550	6.7%	0	0.5	—
Los Angeles Dodgers Shohei Ohtani Fanatics Authentic 50/50 Club Framed 20" x 24" Season Record Collage with Pieces of Game-Used Dirt and Baseball - Limited Edition of 500other	1 in 80	$330	5.9%	1	0.8	—
2024 Bowman Chrome Baseball Factory Sealed Hobby Boxother	1 in 74	$308	6.0%	0	0.8	—
Autographed New York Yankees Jasson Dominguez Fanatics Authentic Baseball & Mahogany Baseball Display Casecontainer	1 in 67	$262	5.6%	2	0.9	—
Men's Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper Nike Blue 2024 City Connect Limited Player Jerseyother	1 in 57	$200	5.0%	3	1.1	2.76×
Men's Houston Astros Alex Bregman Nike Navy City Connect Limited Player Jerseyother	1 in 57	$195	4.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
Men's Washington Nationals Nike Charcoal City Connect Limited Jerseyother	1 in 50	$190	5.4%	4	1.2	3.23×
2024 Bowman Baseball Factory Sealed Display Boxother	1 in 44	$175	5.6%	1	1.4	0.72×
Men's Colorado Rockies Charlie Blackmon Nike Green City Connect Replica Player Jerseyother	1 in 50	$100	2.9%	1	1.2	0.81×
Philadelphia Phillies Tokens and Icons Game-Used Baseball Yarn Braceletother	1 in 27	$64.00	3.4%	3	2.3	1.29×
Houston Astros Game-Used 2017 World Series Game 7 Dirt Jarother	1 in 19	$50.00	3.7%	2	3.2	0.62×
2020 Philadelphia Phillies Game-Used Baseballother	1 in 19	$50.00	3.7%	3	3.2	0.93×
Men's Los Angeles Dodgers New Era Navy Cooperstown Collection Wool 59FIFTY Fitted Hatother	1 in 13	$44.00	4.7%	3	4.6	0.65×
Men's Houston Astros Mitchell & Ness Cream Overspray Pro Pinch Snapback Hatother	10.0%	$35.00	5.0%	6	6.2	0.97×
Boston Red Sox Fenway Park Game-Used Dirt Bottleother	22.5%	$25.00	8.1%	11	14.0	0.79×
New York Yankees Fanatics Authentic Executive Pen with Game-Used Dirt - NY Logoother	30.0%	$20.00	8.6%	20	18.6	1.08×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.