Basement Dweller

A box on Cases.gg (Tech), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$107.87

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $96.54 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.11%

201 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

94.11%±19.62201 openings

30 days

94.11%±19.62201 openings

since tracking started

94.11%±19.62201 openings

-0.5%75.5%151.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	37.31%±113.6	—	odds
7d	201	94.11%±19.6	+0.5σ	odds
30d	201	94.11%±19.6	+0.5σ	odds
All	201	94.11%±19.6	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 201 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Microsoft Xbox Series X 1TB Gaming Consoleother	1 in 500	$900	1.9%	1	0.4	—
PlayStation®5 Digital Edition (Slim)other	1 in 333	$730	2.3%	0	0.6	—
Meta Quest 3 128GBother	1 in 200	$700	3.6%	1	1.0	1.00×
Xbox Series S 1TB, Carbon Blackother	1 in 100	$650	6.7%	3	2.0	1.49×
Higround x Aot2 Mikasa Base 65 Keyboardother	1 in 33	$550	17.1%	5	6.0	0.83×
Higround x Jujutsu Kaisen Gojo Mousepadother	10.0%	$276	28.6%	20	20.1	1.00×
RESPAWN 110 Gaming Chairother	1 in 25	$200	8.3%	12	8.0	1.49×
Homall Gaming Chairother	11.0%	$199	22.7%	22	22.1	1.00×
Youtooz Anya Forger 4.3" Vinyl Figureother	1 in 20	$39.00	2.0%	11	10.1	1.09×
Youtooz Naruto Ramen 3.9" Inch Vinyl Figureother	1 in 20	$34.00	1.8%	10	10.1	1.00×
Naruto Shippuden Ichiraku Ramen Bowlother	1 in 20	$28.00	1.5%	15	10.1	1.49×
$20 Steam Gift Cardother	1 in 20	$20.00	1.0%	10	10.1	1.00×
Youtooz Cowboy Bebop Last Stand Spike 5" Vinyl Figureother	1 in 20	$15.00	0.8%	10	10.1	1.00×
Xbox Socks Gaming Console Logo Adult Crew Socks 1 Pairother	1 in 20	$13.95	0.7%	7	10.1	0.70×
Logitech Mouse Pad - Studio Seriesother	1 in 20	$9.66	0.5%	7	10.1	0.70×
Pokemon Cardsother	10.0%	$3.00	0.3%	15	20.1	0.75×
Thumb Gripsother	10.0%	$2.00	0.2%	21	20.1	1.04×
Brickother	15.0%	$0.50	0.1%	31	30.1	1.03×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Microsoft Xbox Series X 1TB Gaming ConsoleotherJoshuaCR$108$9008.34x2d

Meta Quest 3 128GBother$108$7006.49x2d

Xbox Series S 1TB, Carbon Blackother$108$6506.03x2d

Xbox Series S 1TB, Carbon BlackotherHenzair$108$6506.03x5d

Higround x Aot2 Mikasa Base 65 Keyboardother$108$5505.10x1d

Higround x Aot2 Mikasa Base 65 Keyboardother$108$5505.10x2d

Higround x Aot2 Mikasa Base 65 Keyboardother$108$5505.10x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Brickother$108$0.500.00x8h

Homall Gaming Chairother$108$1991.84x8h

Pokemon Cardsother$108$3.000.03x8h

Thumb Gripsother$108$2.000.02x8h

Youtooz Naruto Ramen 3.9" Inch Vinyl Figureother$108$34.000.32x8h

Pokemon CardsotherEriksZ$108$3.000.03x8h

Thumb Gripsother$108$2.000.02x1d

Naruto Shippuden Ichiraku Ramen Bowlother$108$28.000.26x1d

Youtooz Anya Forger 4.3" Vinyl Figureother$108$39.000.36x1d

Brickother$108$0.500.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$108	89.49%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $900 (8.34x)