Battle of the Planes

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$29.89

Advertised RTP

89.48%

EV $26.75 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.71%

113 openings, odds method

Variance

5.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

64 openings · below min

30 days

113 openings · below min

since tracking started

113 openings · below min

-0.5%71.8%144.0%

Small sample. 113 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	64	33.50%±59.3	—	odds
30d	113	98.71%±44.6	—	odds
All	113	98.71%±44.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Smothering Tithe (V.3)other	1 in 67	$534	29.9%	3	1.9	1.60×
Ajani Goldmane (V.2)other	1 in 40	$220	20.6%	2	3.1	0.64×
Secret Lair Drop: Pride Across the Multiverseother	1 in 29	$64.00	8.4%	2	4.4	0.46×
Emrakul, the Promised Endother	1 in 29	$43.50	5.7%	4	4.4	0.91×
Karn, Silver Golemother	1 in 25	$40.00	6.0%	6	5.0	1.20×
Plane of Ixalan Loyalty Dice Set (12 Dice)other	1 in 25	$40.00	6.0%	4	5.0	0.80×
Sol'kanar the Swamp Kingother	1 in 20	$32.00	6.0%	6	6.3	0.96×
Smothering Titheother	1 in 20	$28.70	5.4%	6	6.3	0.96×
The Immortal Sun (XM20)other	1 in 20	$17.00	3.2%	4	6.3	0.64×
Chandra Nalaar (V.2)other	1 in 20	$12.90	2.4%	5	6.3	0.80×
The Immortal Sun (XCMM)other	1 in 20	$12.80	2.4%	10	6.3	1.60×
Double Masters 2022: "Emrakul, the Aeons Torn" Deck Boxother	1 in 17	$6.80	1.5%	7	7.5	0.93×
Karn, Legacy Reforgedother	1 in 17	$5.52	1.2%	8	7.5	1.07×
Phyrexian Arenaother	1 in 13	$3.45	1.0%	25	9.4	2.67×
Nissa Revaneother	1 in 13	$1.00	0.3%	6	9.4	0.64×
Phyrexian Arenaother	1 in 11	$0.30	0.1%	25	11.3	2.22×
Planar Die (Divine Convocation)other	10.0%	$0.10	0.0%	10	12.5	0.80×
Sigarda's Imprisonmentother	10.0%	$0.01	0.0%	17	12.5	1.36×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.