Bikini Bottom

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price
$157.05
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $140.55 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.70%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
6 openings · below min
30 days
18 openings · below min
since tracking started
18 openings · below min
-0.5%92.3%185.0%

Small sample. 18 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d639.27%±145.3—odds
30d1860.70%±83.9—odds
All1860.70%±83.9—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Microsoft Xbox Series X SpongeBob SquarePants All Star Brawl 2 Console 6570627other1 in 1,000$7,3005.2%00.0—
Louis De Guzman Split Screen Spongebob Screen Print (Signed, Edition of 75)other1 in 500$2,7603.9%00.0—
Supreme SpongeBob SquarePants Jeff Hamilton Racing Jacket US Mother1 in 200$8002.8%00.1—
Nike Kyrie 5 Spongebob Pineapple House US M 11other1 in 100$5794.1%00.2—
Supreme SpongeBob SquarePants Castelli Cycling Bib US XLother1 in 125$5693.2%00.1—
Nike Kyrie x Spongebob Squidward Backpack Frosted Spruceother1 in 200$5401.9%00.1—
Nike Kyrie 5 Spongebob Patrick US M 11other1 in 100$4853.5%00.2—
Sprayground x SpongeBob Don't Mess With SpongeBob (DLXSR) Backpackother1 in 50$4506.4%00.4—
Youtooz Smirking Spongebob Vinyl Figureother1 in 100$4072.9%00.2—
ToyQube Spongebob Squarepants Ice Cream Coneother1 in 67$3864.1%00.3—
Bearbrick Spongebob 100% & 400% Setother1 in 67$2752.9%00.3—
SpongeBob Bikini Bottom Patrick Star Ver. Cell Phone Holderother1 in 40$2274.0%00.5—
SpongeBob Squarepants Bikini Bottom Buddies Whimsical Plush Sealed Case (6 Blind Box)other1 in 40$2053.6%00.5—
SpongeBob Best Friends Series Figure Sealed Case (12 Blind Box)other1 in 40$1953.5%00.5—
Labubu The Monsters Spongebob Series Sealed Case (12 Blind Box)other1 in 20$1956.9%40.9—
Nike Kyrie 5 Spongebob Pineapple House (TD) US 5Cother1 in 40$1853.3%00.5—
Supreme SpongeBob/Castelli Racing L/S Tee US Lother1 in 33$1803.8%00.5—
Crocs Classic Clog SpongeBob SquarePants US M 11other1 in 33$1002.1%10.5—
Supreme SpongeBob SquarePants Castelli Cycling Sock (1 Pack) US L/XLother1 in 33$1002.1%00.5—
Fuggler Spongebob Squarepants - Spongebob & Patrick Plush Setother1 in 20$1003.6%10.9—
SpongeBob Best Friends Series Born Together (Secret Edition) Figureother1 in 20$86.003.1%10.9—
SpongeBob SquarePants Bikini Bottom Squidward Vers Storage Bagother1 in 20$85.003.0%20.9—
Uniqlo x CPFM Spongebob Squarepants UT Graphic T-Shirt US Mother10.0%$80.005.7%11.80.56×
Uniqlo x CPFM Spongebob Squarepants & Patrick Star Plush Setother1 in 13$64.003.4%21.31.48×
SpongeBob Squarepants Bikini Bottom Buddies Whimsical Cool Fish Plushother1 in 12$53.003.2%21.51.32×
SpongeBob Best Friends Series I'm SpongeBob Figureother10.0%$46.003.3%11.80.56×
SpongeBob Best Friends Series Teeth Cleaning Figureother15.0%$40.004.3%32.71.11×
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 23:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$15789.50%27
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —