BK
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$27.57
Advertised RTP
89.48%
EV $24.67 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.72%
312 openings, odds method
Variance
22.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 312 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vandy The Pink Giant Burger Plush Toyother | 1 in 400 | $2,188 | 22.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Human Made Burger Cushionother | 1 in 133 | $617 | 18.8% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| Timex Episode #4 40mm Stainless Steel Bracelet Watchother | 1 in 100 | $360 | 14.6% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| Plane Ticketother | 1 in 67 | $250 | 15.2% | 12 | 4.7 | 2.56× |
| Vans Burger King x Sneaker Mechanic Shoes M 8.5other | 1 in 50 | $200 | 16.2% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× |
| Burger King Toy Story Alien 3-Inch Figureother | 1 in 13 | $20.00 | 6.1% | 20 | 23.4 | 0.85× |
| Burger Socksother | 10.0% | $8.00 | 3.2% | 19 | 31.2 | 0.61× |
| Burger King Whopperother | 10.0% | $4.00 | 1.6% | 32 | 31.2 | 1.03× |
| Burger King Trayother | 10.0% | $2.00 | 0.8% | 27 | 31.2 | 0.87× |
| Burger King Friesother | 17.0% | $1.50 | 1.0% | 63 | 53.0 | 1.19× |
| Burger King Crownother | 20.0% | $0.25 | 0.2% | 70 | 62.4 | 1.12× |
| Plastic Water Bottleother | 20.0% | $0.10 | 0.1% | 59 | 62.4 | 0.95× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.57 | 89.48% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $2,188 (79.36x)