Black Card
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$1,741.29
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $1,558.45 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.06%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
41.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 BMW X5 M60iother | 1 in 200 | $125K | 39.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Patek Philippe 5905/1A Annual Calendar Chronograph 5905 Stainless Steelother | 1 in 200 | $84K | 26.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Hermès Birkin 25 Black Ostrich Palladium Hardwareother | 1 in 200 | $46.8K | 15.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Seadoo RXT-X 325other | 1 in 200 | $24.7K | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Louis Vuitton Nike Air Force 1 Low By Virgil Abloh Black Metallic Silver (US Men's 6.5)other | 1 in 200 | $13.8K | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Louis Vuitton x NBA Basketballother | 1 in 200 | $8,160 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cartier CT0439Sother | 1 in 200 | $4,351 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Goyard Plumet Pouch Black/Naturalother | 1 in 200 | $2,460 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Goyard Victoire Wallet Navy Blueother | 1 in 200 | $1,730 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| TRINITY BRACELETother | 1 in 200 | $1,068 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Chocolate Gold Coinother | 32.0% | $1.00 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| 1 USDTother | 31.0% | $1.00 | 0.0% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× |
| United States Dollar Coinother | 32.0% | $1.00 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,741 | 89.50% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —