Blazing Charizard
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$34.62
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $30.98 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.58%
717 openings, odds method
Variance
19.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 48
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 717 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard EX (XY-P 276)other | 1 in 303 | $2,200 | 23.4% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| Charizard Gold Star δ Delta Species (DF 100)other | 1 in 133 | $600 | 14.5% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |
| Charizard GX (HIF SV49)other | 1 in 100 | $550 | 17.8% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× |
| Charizard (LC S1)other | 1 in 133 | $500 | 12.1% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× |
| Charizard (CEL BS 4)other | 1 in 50 | $74.00 | 4.8% | 20 | 14.3 | 1.39× |
| Charizard V (BRS 154)other | 1 in 50 | $72.00 | 4.6% | 17 | 14.3 | 1.19× |
| Charizard (BS 4)other | 1 in 44 | $63.00 | 4.6% | 22 | 16.1 | 1.36× |
| Celebrations Collection: Lance’s Charizard Vother | 1 in 40 | $40.00 | 3.2% | 19 | 17.9 | 1.06× |
| Charizard VSTAR (BRS 174)other | 1 in 40 | $35.00 | 2.8% | 16 | 17.9 | 0.89× |
| Charizard (EVO 11)other | 1 in 25 | $16.00 | 2.1% | 27 | 28.7 | 0.94× |
| Charizard VSTAR (SWSH 262)other | 1 in 25 | $13.00 | 1.7% | 19 | 28.7 | 0.66× |
| Charizard VMAX (SWSH 261)other | 1 in 20 | $11.00 | 1.8% | 29 | 35.9 | 0.81× |
| Charizard V (BRS 017)other | 1 in 20 | $11.00 | 1.8% | 42 | 35.9 | 1.17× |
| Charizard V (SWSH 260)other | 1 in 16 | $8.00 | 1.6% | 58 | 44.8 | 1.29× |
| Radiant Charizard (PGO 011)other | 1 in 13 | $5.00 | 1.2% | 53 | 53.8 | 0.99× |
| Charizard (LOR TG03)other | 1 in 11 | $4.00 | 1.2% | 59 | 65.7 | 0.90× |
| Charizard (s8b 017)other | 20.0% | $0.90 | 0.6% | 148 | 143.4 | 1.03× |
| Charizard (PGO 010)other | 25.0% | $0.32 | 0.3% | 175 | 179.3 | 0.98× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.62 | 89.50% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $2,200 (63.55x)