BMW Boys
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$5,688.55
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $5,091.25 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 34
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 BMW M4other | 1 in 500 | $125K | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2025 BMW X5 M60iother | 1 in 400 | $125K | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2022 BMW M5 Baseother | 1 in 400 | $115K | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2022 BMW M8 Competitionother | 1 in 400 | $110K | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2024 BMW i5 M60other | 1 in 333 | $109K | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2025 BMW M3 - Baseother | 1 in 286 | $99.2K | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2022 BMW M3 Baseother | 1 in 167 | $85.2K | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2024 BMW i4 Xdrive40 Gran Coupeother | 1 in 133 | $79.1K | 11.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2024 BMW 3 Series 330Iother | 1 in 100 | $60K | 11.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2023 BMW X5 Xdrive40iother | 1 in 100 | $57K | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2019 BMW 4 Series 440I Xdrive Gran Coupeother | 1 in 50 | $32.4K | 12.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2004 BMW 330dother | 1 in 13 | $2,700 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 1993 BMW 316other | 1 in 17 | $2,400 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Hot Wheels RLC Exclusive 1991 BMW M3other | 12.5% | $72.72 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| BMW M Badgeother | 12.5% | $40.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M Pack Hoodieother | 15.0% | $35.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M Pack Sweatpantsother | 15.0% | $20.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| BMW Keychainother | 24.6% | $9.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5,689 | 89.50% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%