Bottom of the Barrel
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$0.15
Advertised RTP
88.06%
EV $0.13 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.44%
28.5K openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propeller Hatother | 1 in 400 | $3.25 | 6.2% | 73 | 71.3 | 1.02× |
| Fake Moustacheother | 1 in 286 | $3.00 | 7.9% | 97 | 99.8 | 0.97× |
| Chair Wheelother | 1 in 200 | $2.00 | 7.6% | 140 | 142.6 | 0.98× |
| Taco Holderother | 1 in 200 | $2.00 | 7.6% | 125 | 142.6 | 0.88× |
| Bike Handlebar Gripsother | 1 in 100 | $0.95 | 7.2% | 282 | 285.3 | 0.99× |
| Allen Wrenchother | 1 in 100 | $0.80 | 6.1% | 286 | 285.3 | 1.00× |
| Bass Bottle Openerother | 1 in 80 | $0.75 | 7.1% | 374 | 356.6 | 1.05× |
| Zipper Sliderother | 1 in 74 | $0.63 | 6.4% | 405 | 385.1 | 1.05× |
| CDother | 1 in 67 | $0.50 | 5.7% | 430 | 427.9 | 1.00× |
| Bandaidother | 1 in 61 | $0.35 | 4.4% | 459 | 470.7 | 0.98× |
| Google Play $0.29 Giftcardother | 1 in 57 | $0.29 | 3.8% | 525 | 499.2 | 1.05× |
| Golf Teeother | 1 in 50 | $0.25 | 3.8% | 525 | 570.5 | 0.92× |
| 40-Pin IDE Drive Ribbon Cablesother | 1 in 50 | $0.20 | 3.0% | 585 | 570.5 | 1.03× |
| Hose Clampother | 10.0% | $0.06 | 4.5% | 2,860 | 2852.5 | 1.00× |
| Hot Wheels Trackother | 12.5% | $0.05 | 4.7% | 3,463 | 3565.6 | 0.97× |
| Anti-Dust Plugs for Headphone Jacksother | 20.0% | $0.04 | 6.1% | 5,764 | 5705.0 | 1.01× |
| Sour Cherry Candy Caneother | 20.0% | $0.03 | 4.5% | 5,606 | 5705.0 | 0.98× |
| Singular Heavy Duty Zip Tieother | 22.4% | $0.02 | 3.4% | 6,526 | 6389.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.06%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.15 | 88.06% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —