Budget Shoes

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$0.51

Advertised RTP

88.12%

EV $0.45 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.20%

12.7K openings, odds method

Variance

209.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 38

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

113.79%±133.20454 openings

7 days

80.14%±28.459,949 openings

30 days

81.20%±25.2212.7K openings

since tracking started

81.20%±25.2212.7K openings

-0.5%123.5%247.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	454	113.79%±133.2	+0.4σ	odds
7d	9,949	80.14%±28.5	−0.5σ	odds
30d	12.7K	81.20%±25.2	−0.5σ	odds
All	12.7K	81.20%±25.2	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Travis Scott Reverse Mocha (US 7)other	1 in 100,000	$1,500	3.3%	0	0.1	—
Jordan 4 RetroUnion Off Noir (US 9)other	1 in 100,000	$947	2.1%	0	0.1	—
Jordan Jumpman Jack TR Travis Scott Sail (US 11)other	1 in 100,000	$940	2.1%	0	0.1	—
Nike Dunk Low Off-White University Red (US 8)other	1 in 100,000	$641	1.4%	0	0.1	—
Jordan 11 Retro Concord (2018) (US 8)other	1 in 100,000	$584	1.3%	0	0.1	—
Jordan 11 Retro Cool Grey (2021) (US 11)other	1 in 100,000	$460	1.0%	0	0.1	—
Nike Dunk Low Black Dusty Cactus (US 9)other	1 in 100,000	$320	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Jordan 1 Retro High OG Palomino (US 10)other	1 in 100,000	$180	0.4%	0	0.1	—
adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Carbon Beluga (US 8)other	1 in 100,000	$180	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 White Black Pebbled Leather (US 8)other	1 in 100,000	$120	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Crocs Unisex-Adult Jujutsu Kaisen Classic Clogsother	1 in 20,000	$90.00	1.0%	1	0.6	—
Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Patent Platinum Tint Stadium Green (US 9)other	1 in 33,333	$77.00	0.5%	0	0.4	—
Nike Dunk Low Team Gold (US 8)other	1 in 33,333	$70.00	0.5%	0	0.4	—
Crocs Classic Clog Minecraft Grass Block (US Men's 9)other	1 in 20,000	$67.00	0.7%	0	0.6	—
Crocs Classic Clog Minecraft Grass Block (US Men's 10)other	1 in 20,000	$57.00	0.6%	1	0.6	—
Xbox Socks Gaming Console Logo Adult Crew Socks 1 Pairother	1 in 1,000	$13.95	3.1%	19	12.7	1.50×
Mini Basketball Sneaker Keychainother	1 in 200	$10.00	11.1%	69	63.3	1.09×
Yeezy Box Airpod Case Coverother	1 in 200	$8.99	10.0%	66	63.3	1.04×
3 Pair Flat Shoe lacesother	1 in 200	$7.00	7.8%	54	63.3	0.85×
Jordan Keychainother	1 in 100	$5.00	11.1%	151	126.6	1.19×
Nike Stickerother	1 in 20	$1.99	22.1%	670	633.1	1.06×
Yeezy 350 Boost Zebra Stickerother	1 in 14	$1.00	16.4%	974	933.1	1.04×
$0.01 Voucherother	85.0%	$0.01	1.9%	10,657	10762.7	0.99×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Crocs Unisex-Adult Jujutsu Kaisen Classic Clogsother$0.51$90.00176.5x47m

Crocs Classic Clog Minecraft Grass Block (US Men's 10)other$0.51$57.00111.8x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

$0.01 Voucherother$0.51$0.010.02x38m

$0.01 VoucherotherGlitterMegs- Code DGN$0.51$0.010.02x38m

$0.01 Voucherother$0.51$0.010.02x38m

$0.01 VoucherotherGlitterMegs- Code DGN$0.51$0.010.02x38m

$0.01 Voucherother$0.51$0.010.02x41m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.12%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.51	88.12%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $90.00 (176.5x)