Burglary
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$116.72
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $104.46 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.76%
514 openings, odds method
Variance
19.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 57
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 514 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sapphire and Diamond Pendantother | 1 in 500 | $7,200 | 13.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| Divas’ Dream Necklaceother | 1 in 333 | $5,000 | 14.4% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.95× |
| Pearl Lock Bracelet in Silver, Mediumother | 1 in 200 | $3,300 | 15.8% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.56× |
| 1 Kilo Silver Bar - PAMP Suisse (Serialized)other | 1 in 133 | $1,600 | 11.5% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.30× |
| 10 gram Gold Bar - PAMP Lady Fortuna Veriscan® (In Assay)other | 1 in 133 | $1,500 | 10.8% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× |
| 3 ROW HOOP DIAMOND EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLD 0.33CTWother | 1 in 133 | $1,050 | 7.5% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× |
| Nitecore P20iX Tactical Flashlightother | 1 in 20 | $159 | 7.6% | 27 | 25.7 | 1.05× |
| Amazon Basics Small Safe For Homeother | 1 in 13 | $135 | 9.7% | 41 | 38.5 | 1.06× |
| Ghost Face Mask With Shroudother | 10.0% | $30.00 | 2.9% | 55 | 51.4 | 1.07× |
| Motorcycle Balaclava Face Maskother | 20.0% | $10.00 | 1.9% | 94 | 102.8 | 0.91× |
| Edward Tools Gooseneck Wrecking Barother | 25.0% | $9.00 | 2.2% | 134 | 128.5 | 1.04× |
| New Balance Lightweight Running Glovesother | 29.3% | $7.20 | 2.0% | 142 | 150.3 | 0.94× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $117 | 89.49% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $7,200 (61.69x)