Card Shop

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$110.18

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $98.61 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

126.87%

496 openings, odds method

Variance

40.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

302 openings · below min

30 days

496 openings · below min

since tracking started

496 openings · below min

-0.5%198.3%397.0%

Small sample. 496 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	0.91%±395.3	—	odds
7d	302	99.47%±71.9	—	odds
30d	496	126.87%±56.1	—	odds
All	496	126.87%±56.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 496 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Booster Pack Charizard PSA 10 GEMother	1 in 1,000	$10.7K	10.9%	1	0.5	—
2000 Pokemon Gym Challenge 1st Edition Holo Blaine's Charizard #2 PSA 10 GEMother	1 in 500	$8,800	17.8%	2	1.0	—
2000 Pokemon Neo Genesis 1st Edition Holo Lugia #9 PSA 9 MINTother	1 in 333	$6,600	20.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
2001 Pokemon Neo Revelation 1st Edition Holo Ho-Oh #7 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 250	$3,960	16.1%	4	2.0	2.02×
2009 Pokemon Platinum Holo Giratina #10 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 200	$2,200	11.2%	6	2.5	2.42×
1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Squirtle #63 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 200	$1,350	6.8%	2	2.5	0.81×
2023 Pokemon SWSH Crown Zenith Secret Rare Giratina VSTAR #GG69 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 200	$855	4.3%	3	2.5	1.21×
2016 Pokemon XY Generations Radiant Collection Full Art Pikachu #RC29 PSA 10 GEMother	1 in 200	$576	2.9%	3	2.5	1.21×
2020 Pokemon SWSH Champion's Path Hyper Rare Charizard VMAX #74 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 200	$360	1.8%	1	2.5	0.40×
2021 Pokemon SWSH McDonald's Collection Holo Pikachu #25 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 200	$216	1.1%	2	2.5	0.81×
Surfing Pikachu 2001 Pokemon TCG Promo Black Star #28 (PSA 9)other	1 in 100	$200	2.0%	7	5.0	1.41×
2002 Pokemon Expedition Typhlosion #64 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 200	$165	0.8%	3	2.5	1.21×
2021 Pokemon SWSH Chilling Reign Hyper Rare Blaziken VMAX #200 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 100	$115	1.2%	7	5.0	1.41×
2020 Pokemon Battle Academy Mewtwo GX #31 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 100	$77.00	0.8%	5	5.0	1.01×
2022 Pokemon Sword & Shield Brilliant Stars Pikachu V #157 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 100	$61.00	0.6%	6	5.0	1.21×
2023 Pokemon TCG Classic Collection Holo Dodrio #14 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 100	$33.00	0.3%	5	5.0	1.01×
2023 Pokemon TCG Classic Collection Holo Suicune ex #10 PSA 9 MINTother	1 in 67	$19.00	0.3%	7	7.4	0.94×
Ultra-Pro Solid Black Deckboxother	89.0%	$1.00	0.9%	432	441.4	0.98×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.