Celestial Guardian

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$62.09

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $55.56 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.73%

150 openings, odds method

Variance

38.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

122 openings · below min

30 days

150 openings · below min

since tracking started

150 openings · below min

-0.5%248.8%498.0%

Small sample. 150 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	1.16%±496.2	—	odds
7d	122	81.63%±110.0	—	odds
30d	150	73.73%±99.2	—	odds
All	150	73.73%±99.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 150 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Serra Angel Statueother	1 in 100	$3,850	69.3%	1	1.5	0.67×
Secret Lair Commander Deck: Angels: They're Just Like Us but Cooler Deckother	1 in 57	$385	12.1%	4	2.6	1.52×
Secret Lair Drop Series: Spookydrop 2023: Secret Lair x Doctor Who: The Weeping Angels Setother	1 in 29	$75.00	4.7%	3	5.3	0.57×
From the Vault: Angels: Full Setother	1 in 29	$60.00	3.8%	3	5.3	0.57×
From the Vault: Angels (Sealed)other	1 in 29	$57.00	3.6%	8	5.3	1.52×
Secret Lair Drop Series: Spookydrop 2023: Secret Lair x Doctor Who: The Weeping Angelsother	1 in 29	$42.50	2.7%	6	5.3	1.14×
Battle Angels of Tyrother	1 in 29	$35.00	2.2%	7	5.3	1.33×
Scars of Mirrodin: Indomitable Archangel & Sunblast Angel Deck Boxother	1 in 20	$6.00	0.5%	5	7.5	0.67×
Secret Lair Commander Deck: Angels: They're Just Like Us but Cooler: Life Counter (Bruna, the Fading Light)other	1 in 20	$3.50	0.3%	5	7.5	0.67×
From the Vault: Angels: D20 Dieother	1 in 20	$3.00	0.3%	11	7.5	1.47×
Angel's Graceother	1 in 20	$1.50	0.1%	6	7.5	0.80×
Jumpstart Pack Summary Card: Angelsother	1 in 20	$1.50	0.1%	4	7.5	0.53×
Entreat the Angelsother	1 in 13	$0.80	0.1%	12	11.3	1.07×
Angel's Trumpetother	1 in 13	$0.40	0.1%	13	11.3	1.16×
Torens, Fist of the Angelsother	1 in 13	$0.25	0.0%	16	11.3	1.42×
Angel's Tombother	10.0%	$0.04	0.0%	14	15.0	0.93×
Angel's Featherother	10.0%	$0.02	0.0%	16	15.0	1.07×
Angel's Mercyother	12.3%	$0.02	0.0%	16	18.4	0.87×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.