Cheap Hype
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$10.25
Advertised RTP
89.42%
EV $9.17 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
41.54%
2,268 openings, odds method
Variance
789.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 2,857
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2,268 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,268 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Oyster Perpetual 36mm 126000 Turquoise Tiffany Blue Dial Stainless Steelother | 1 in 10,000 | $17.5K | 19.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Audi TT RS 2010other | 1 in 10,000 | $15K | 16.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Louis Vuitton x NBA Keepall 55 Bandouliere Blueother | 1 in 6,667 | $10K | 16.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White (US 7)other | 1 in 5,000 | $7,400 | 16.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Cartier Wedding Bandother | 1 in 2,000 | $1,804 | 9.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| 1 Kilo Silver Bar - PAMP Suisse (Serialized)other | 1 in 2,000 | $1,600 | 8.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Bearbrick x Marvel Iron Man Mark 85 1000%other | 1 in 3,333 | $1,240 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Apple Gift Card - $500other | 1 in 667 | $530 | 8.7% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| 1 Dogeother | 10.0% | $0.22 | 0.2% | 224 | 226.8 | 0.99× |
| Kith Stickerother | 15.0% | $0.10 | 0.2% | 351 | 340.2 | 1.03× |
| Perfume Testing Stripother | 20.0% | $0.05 | 0.1% | 465 | 453.6 | 1.03× |
| Empty Pizza Hut Giftcardother | 20.0% | $0.05 | 0.1% | 447 | 453.6 | 0.99× |
| United States Pennyother | 34.7% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 776 | 786.2 | 0.99× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.42%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.25 | 89.42% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $7,400 (722.0x)