Cheap Mix

A box on Cases.gg (Budget), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$12.40

Advertised RTP

89.44%

EV $11.09 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.16%

1,050 openings, odds method

Variance

20.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

39 openings · below min

7 days

80.98%±28.88960 openings

30 days

80.16%±27.621,050 openings

since tracking started

80.16%±27.621,050 openings

-0.5%113.5%227.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	39	83.57%±143.3	—	odds
7d	960	80.98%±28.9	−0.6σ	odds
30d	1,050	80.16%±27.6	−0.7σ	odds
All	1,050	80.16%±27.6	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,050 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White MCA University Blue (US 8)other	1 in 10,000	$3,480	3.1%	0	0.1	—
SAMSUNG Galaxy Z Fold 6 AI Cell Phone, 256GB, Navyother	1 in 10,000	$2,330	2.1%	0	0.1	—
KAWS Separated Vinyl Figure Setother	1 in 10,000	$1,976	1.8%	0	0.1	—
Supreme Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Black (US XL)other	1 in 10,000	$1,060	1.0%	0	0.1	—
Louis Vuitton by Tyler, the Creator Multiple Wallet Chocolate Craggy Monogramother	1 in 10,000	$800	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Louis Vuitton LV Slim Bracelet Monogram Eclipse Blackother	1 in 10,000	$450	0.4%	0	0.1	—
YOSUDA Indoor Cycling Bike Brake Pad/Magnetic Stationary Bikeother	1 in 10,000	$305	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Nintendo Switch Lite - Blueother	1 in 200	$285	12.8%	2	5.3	0.38×
Supreme Burberry Skateboard Deck Beigeother	1 in 10,000	$265	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Apple AirPods (2nd Generation) Wireless Ear Budsother	1 in 200	$175	7.9%	5	5.3	0.95×
Supreme Bandana Box Logo Tee Navy (US M)other	1 in 10,000	$130	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Crocs Classic Clog Minecraft Grass Block (US Men's 4)other	1 in 200	$125	5.6%	7	5.3	1.33×
Xbox Core Wireless Gaming Controller – Velocity Greenother	1 in 200	$93.00	4.2%	4	5.3	0.76×
Furmax Office Chairother	1 in 20	$67.00	30.2%	64	52.5	1.22×
KAWS x Uniqlo Longsleeve Sweatshirt Black (US L)other	1 in 100	$56.00	5.0%	12	10.5	1.14×
Garden Shovelother	1 in 20	$18.32	8.3%	57	52.5	1.09×
LEGO Minifigures Goblinother	1 in 20	$15.50	7.0%	50	52.5	0.95×
JASPIN Rectangle Sunglassesother	1 in 20	$7.00	3.2%	37	52.5	0.70×
Jordan Keychainother	1 in 20	$5.00	2.3%	54	52.5	1.03×
Chocolate Gold Coinother	32.0%	$1.00	2.9%	329	336.0	0.98×
Dog Treatother	39.9%	$0.25	0.9%	429	419.1	1.02×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dog Treatother$12.40$0.250.02x1h

Chocolate Gold Coinother$12.40$1.000.08x1h

Jordan Keychainother$12.40$5.000.40x1h

Chocolate Gold Coinother$12.40$1.000.08x1h

JASPIN Rectangle Sunglassesotherjesse42$12.40$7.000.56x1h

Furmax Office Chairother$12.40$67.005.40x1h

Dog Treatother$12.40$0.250.02x1h

Chocolate Gold Coinother$12.40$1.000.08x1h

Dog Treatother$12.40$0.250.02x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.44%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$12.40	89.44%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —