Chocolate Cashout
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$129.45
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $115.85 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
133.84%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Vuitton by Tyler, the Creator Multiple Wallet Chocolate Craggy Monogramother | 1 in 20 | $800 | 34.5% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| Rubie's Costume Co Super Deluxe Plush Rabbitother | 1 in 20 | $560 | 24.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Jordan 5 Retro Easter (2022) US M 8.5other | 1 in 20 | $385 | 16.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Squishmallow Easter Exclusive Axolotl Set 5 Inch (Set Of 3) Plushother | 1 in 20 | $180 | 7.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| RockLove Star Guardian Ina Stacker Ringsother | 10.0% | $90.00 | 7.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| Lindt Easter Basket with GOLD BUNNYother | 10.0% | $40.00 | 3.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| LEGO Creator 3 in 1 Cute Bunny Toyother | 20.0% | $20.00 | 3.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| MBL Easter Basket Essentials Stuffers Duckother | 20.0% | $10.00 | 1.7% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| Colorful Easter Egg Pattern PopSocketother | 20.0% | $3.00 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 23:42 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $129 | 89.49% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $800 (6.18x)