Christmas Shopping

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$28.45

Advertised RTP

89.47%

EV $25.45 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.17%

2,828 openings, odds method

Variance

18.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 52

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

156 openings · below min

7 days

97.55%±16.792,535 openings

30 days

101.17%±15.892,828 openings

since tracking started

101.17%±15.892,828 openings

-0.5%58.5%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	156	41.45%±67.7	—	odds
7d	2,535	97.55%±16.8	+0.9σ	odds
30d	2,828	101.17%±15.9	+1.4σ	odds
All	2,828	101.17%±15.9	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,828 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop \| Intel Core i5-13420H Processor \| NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPUother	1 in 500	$1,600	12.6%	8	5.7	1.41×
LEGO Star Wars Super Star Destroyer Set 10221other	1 in 800	$1,595	7.8%	9	3.5	2.55×
iPhone 16 Pro, Natural Titanium, 128 GBother	1 in 667	$1,200	7.1%	5	4.2	1.18×
Apple iPhone 15 Pro, 256GB, Natural Titaniumother	1 in 556	$760	5.4%	4	5.1	0.79×
Dyson V8 Plus Cordless Vacuum, Silver/Nickelother	1 in 250	$564	8.9%	9	11.3	0.80×
Dyson Supersonic™ Hair Dryerother	1 in 250	$516	8.1%	9	11.3	0.80×
Apple Watch Series 10, Alluminum, 42mmother	1 in 222	$480	8.5%	10	12.7	0.79×
Apple AirPods 4other	1 in 125	$240	7.5%	21	22.6	0.93×
LEGO Star Wars R2-D2 Brick Built Droid Figure 75379other	1 in 80	$135	6.6%	47	35.4	1.33×
Fortnite V-Bucks Gift Card - 5000 V-Bucksother	1 in 28	$36.99	5.2%	99	100.3	0.99×
Jersey Mike's Gift Cardother	1 in 20	$25.00	4.9%	112	141.4	0.79×
$20 Dominos Gift Cardother	1 in 18	$20.00	4.3%	189	155.5	1.22×
Evshine Women's Fuzzy Slippersother	1 in 18	$20.00	4.3%	138	155.5	0.89×
Pack Of 3 White Men's Socksother	10.0%	$8.99	3.5%	273	282.8	0.97×
Jordan Beanieother	12.5%	$6.50	3.2%	353	353.5	1.00×
Artificial Bonsai Treeother	15.0%	$2.00	1.2%	447	424.2	1.05×
Poop Emoji Stress Toyother	15.0%	$0.99	0.6%	419	424.2	0.99×
Coastal Surfer Beach Braceletother	24.0%	$0.35	0.3%	676	678.7	1.00×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPUotherSnupsBar$28.45$1,60056.24x1d

Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPUother$28.45$1,60056.24x1d

Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPUother$28.45$1,60056.24x4d

Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPUother$28.45$1,60056.24x5d

Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPUother$28.45$1,60056.24x8d

Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPUother$28.45$1,60056.24x9d

LEGO Star Wars Super Star Destroyer Set 10221other$28.45$1,59556.06x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Jordan Beanieother$28.45$6.500.23x48s

Coastal Surfer Beach Braceletother$28.45$0.350.01x48s

Jersey Mike's Gift CardotherNcthcfoodie code DGN$28.45$25.000.88x48s

Artificial Bonsai Treeother$28.45$2.000.07x57s

Pack Of 3 White Men's Socksother$28.45$8.990.32x57s

Coastal Surfer Beach BraceletotherNcthcfoodie code DGN$28.45$0.350.01x57s

LEGO Star Wars R2-D2 Brick Built Droid Figure 75379other$28.45$1354.75x2h

Pack Of 3 White Men's Socksother$28.45$8.990.32x2h

Artificial Bonsai Treeother$28.45$2.000.07x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$28.45	89.47%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $1,600 (56.24x)