Coffee Connoisseur

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$39.38

Advertised RTP

89.48%

EV $35.24 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

56.21%

102 openings, odds method

Variance

6.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

56.21%±49.02102 openings

30 days

56.21%±49.02102 openings

since tracking started

56.21%±49.02102 openings

-0.5%111.5%223.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	98.88%±123.8	—	odds
7d	102	56.21%±49.0	−1.3σ	odds
30d	102	56.21%±49.0	−1.3σ	odds
All	102	56.21%±49.0	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Jamaica Blue Mountain Coffeeother	1 in 100	$856	24.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
Multifunction Classic Moka Pot Stovetop Espresso Makerother	1 in 50	$369	20.9%	1	2.0	0.49×
Designer Coffee Table Booksother	1 in 50	$150	8.5%	2	2.0	0.98×
Coffee x Spice Winter Gift Setother	1 in 33	$75.00	6.4%	3	3.1	0.98×
Chemex Pour-Over Glass Coffeemakerother	1 in 33	$62.00	5.3%	2	3.1	0.65×
YETI Rambler 20 oz Travel Mugother	1 in 33	$48.00	4.1%	4	3.1	1.31×
AeroPress Original Coffee and Espresso-style Makerother	1 in 33	$42.00	3.6%	2	3.1	0.65×
Java Planet Organic Coffee Sampler Packother	1 in 33	$36.00	3.1%	3	3.1	0.98×
4x Porcelain Coffee Cupsother	1 in 20	$32.40	4.6%	3	5.1	0.59×
Mayorga Decaf Dark Roast Coffee 2lb Bagother	1 in 20	$29.00	4.1%	5	5.1	0.98×
Bodum 34 oz Brazil French Press Coffee Makerother	1 in 20	$27.50	3.9%	6	5.1	1.18×
BAGAIL BASICS Coffee Scale with Timerother	1 in 20	$22.00	3.1%	5	5.1	0.98×
WoodWick Medium Hourglass Candle - Vanilla Bean, Caramel, Biscottiother	1 in 13	$18.00	3.8%	10	7.7	1.31×
Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk Soapother	1 in 13	$8.50	1.8%	8	7.7	1.05×
Bonsenkitchen Powerful Milk Frother for Coffeeother	1 in 13	$7.00	1.5%	7	7.7	0.92×
Wooden Honey Dripperother	10.0%	$1.50	0.4%	13	10.2	1.27×
Coffee Cup Art Stencilother	12.5%	$1.00	0.4%	16	12.8	1.25×
Cone Coffee Filterother	15.0%	$0.50	0.2%	12	15.3	0.78×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk Soapother$39.38$8.500.22x14h

Bodum 34 oz Brazil French Press Coffee Makerother$39.38$27.500.70x14h

Mayorga Decaf Dark Roast Coffee 2lb Bagother$39.38$29.000.74x14h

Cone Coffee Filterother$39.38$0.500.01x14h

Bonsenkitchen Powerful Milk Frother for Coffeeother$39.38$7.000.18x14h

Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk SoapotherEriksZ$39.38$8.500.22x14h

Coffee Cup Art Stencilother$39.38$1.000.03x19h

Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk Soapother$39.38$8.500.22x19h

Multifunction Classic Moka Pot Stovetop Espresso Makerother$39.38$3699.37x19h

Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk Soapother$39.38$8.500.22x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$39.38	89.48%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —