Console War
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$17.81
Advertised RTP
89.46%
EV $15.93 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.28%
520 openings, odds method
Variance
10.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 520 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayStation®5 Consoleother | 1 in 333 | $730 | 13.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| Xbox Series S 1TB, Carbon Blackother | 1 in 500 | $650 | 8.2% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.88× |
| Xbox 360 250GB Slim Console - (Renewed)other | 1 in 200 | $225 | 7.1% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| Sony Playstation Portable (PSP)other | 1 in 100 | $180 | 11.3% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× |
| PlayStation DualSense® Wireless Controller - Whiteother | 1 in 50 | $89.00 | 11.2% | 12 | 10.4 | 1.15× |
| Xbox Core Wireless Gaming Controller – Carbon Blackother | 1 in 50 | $75.00 | 9.4% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× |
| Gran Turismo 7 (PS5)other | 1 in 33 | $59.00 | 11.1% | 17 | 15.6 | 1.09× |
| Elden Ring - Xbox Series Xother | 1 in 33 | $55.00 | 10.4% | 21 | 15.6 | 1.35× |
| Sonic Frontiers - PlayStation 5other | 1 in 20 | $19.99 | 6.3% | 25 | 26.0 | 0.96× |
| Xbox Socks Gaming Console Logo Adult Crew Socks 1 Pairother | 1 in 20 | $13.95 | 4.4% | 29 | 26.0 | 1.12× |
| Thumb Gripsother | 34.0% | $2.00 | 4.3% | 153 | 176.8 | 0.87× |
| Thumb Stick Gripsother | 44.0% | $1.00 | 2.8% | 238 | 228.8 | 1.04× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.46%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.81 | 89.46% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $730 (40.99x)