Cosplay Craze

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$39.84

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $35.65 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.75%

78 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

22 openings · below min

7 days

68 openings · below min

30 days

78 openings · below min

since tracking started

78 openings · below min

-0.5%66.5%133.5%

Small sample. 78 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	22	61.05%±72.0	—	odds
7d	68	91.12%±40.9	—	odds
30d	78	85.75%±38.2	—	odds
All	78	85.75%±38.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Hatsune Miku Chronicle 1:7 Scale PVC Figureother	1 in 100	$475	13.3%	2	0.9	—
FF Sephiroth Cosplay Costumeother	1 in 100	$316	8.9%	0	0.9	—
The Lord of the Rings Gandalf Cosplay Costumeother	1 in 80	$240	8.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
Genshin Impact Tighnari Cosplay Costumeother	1 in 50	$185	10.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
Genshin Impact Vigilant Yaksha Xiao Face Covering Mask Cosplay Accessoryother	1 in 50	$136	7.6%	1	1.8	0.56×
Nuoqi Violet Evergarden Cosplay Costume Womens Anime Uniform Dress Suit Outfit Dark Blueother	1 in 50	$98.00	5.5%	2	1.8	1.11×
Ichigo Kurosaki Bankai Buruchi Mid 1 Basketball Shoes for Kidsother	1 in 50	$87.00	4.9%	1	1.8	0.56×
Genshin Impact Derivative Backpack The Wanderer Scaramouche Balladeer Cat Style Plush Ita Bag Shoulder Bagother	1 in 50	$80.00	4.5%	0	1.8	0.00×
PM Derivative Magical Girl Sailor Suit Top and Skirt Set with Headband Choker Cosplay Costumeother	1 in 33	$76.00	6.4%	2	2.7	0.74×
Honkai: Star Rail Silver Wolf Cosplay Shoes Long Black Blue Bootsother	1 in 33	$60.00	5.0%	4	2.7	1.48×
Attack On Titan Official Licensed Survey Corps Plush Cloak with Wings of Freedomother	1 in 20	$44.00	6.2%	8	4.5	1.78×
One Piece Beanieother	1 in 16	$23.99	4.2%	8	5.6	1.42×
Silver Naruto 8.7inch Kunaiother	1 in 13	$19.00	4.0%	8	6.8	1.19×
Athena Face Body Paint Oil Paletteother	1 in 11	$15.00	4.0%	10	8.6	1.17×
Navy Blue Wig for Venti Cosplay Costumeother	10.0%	$10.00	2.8%	8	9.0	0.89×
BlueMyst Feline Contact Lensesother	12.5%	$7.99	2.8%	12	11.3	1.07×
Naruto Bandai Spirits Memorable Saga Figureother	12.5%	$2.80	1.0%	7	11.3	0.62×
Death Note Keychainother	17.5%	$0.25	0.1%	17	15.7	1.08×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.