CS2
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$8.12
Advertised RTP
89.40%
EV $7.26 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.15%
1,157 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,157 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS2 M4A1S Hyper Beast Replicaother | 1 in 1,000 | $526 | 7.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| CS2 Glock-18 Water Elemental Replicaother | 1 in 400 | $170 | 5.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| CS2 Glock-18 Gamma Doppler Emerald Replicaother | 1 in 400 | $170 | 5.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| CS2 M9 Bayonet Tiger Tooth Replicaother | 1 in 100 | $50.00 | 6.9% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.21× |
| CS2 Bayonet Slaughter Replicaother | 1 in 100 | $50.00 | 6.9% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× |
| CS2 Talon Fade Replicaother | 1 in 100 | $45.00 | 6.2% | 8 | 11.6 | 0.69× |
| CS2 Ursus Night Replicaother | 1 in 100 | $45.00 | 6.2% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.21× |
| CS2 Butterfly Emerald Replicaother | 1 in 100 | $40.00 | 5.5% | 15 | 11.6 | 1.30× |
| CS2 Karambit Doppler P2 Replicaother | 1 in 100 | $40.00 | 5.5% | 8 | 11.6 | 0.69× |
| CS2 Skeleton Lore Replicaother | 1 in 80 | $35.00 | 6.0% | 18 | 14.5 | 1.24× |
| CS2 Sport Gloves Vice Replicaother | 1 in 80 | $35.00 | 6.0% | 18 | 14.5 | 1.24× |
| CS2 Gamma Case Replicaother | 20.0% | $5.00 | 13.8% | 230 | 231.4 | 0.99× |
| CS2 Silver I Badge Replicaother | 30.0% | $3.00 | 12.4% | 343 | 347.1 | 0.99× |
| CS2 Keychainother | 40.9% | $1.00 | 5.6% | 471 | 473.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.12 | 89.40% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $526 (64.72x)