Diamond Tier
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$226.37
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $202.60 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
262.95%
222 openings, odds method
Variance
221.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 222 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 222 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 Pavé Diamond Necklace in Rose Goldother | 1 in 2,000 | $97.5K | 24.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 18MM MIAMI CUBAN DIAMOND NECKLACE 14K SOLID GOLD 37.00CTWother | 1 in 2,000 | $72.6K | 17.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| 36 Stone Bracelet in Platinum & Gold with Diamondsother | 1 in 1,000 | $54K | 26.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| 6PT PRONG SET DIAMOND TENNIS NECKLACE 14K SOLID GOLD 10.50CTWother | 1 in 1,000 | $29K | 14.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Hermès Faubourg Watch GM 18K Rose Gold White Diamonds Rose Gold Hardwareother | 1 in 1,000 | $12K | 5.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| SMALL NAIL DIAMOND BANGLE 14K SOLID GOLD 2.75CTWother | 1 in 1,000 | $8,250 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| 1.00CTW SOLITAIRE DIAMOND STUD EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLDother | 1 in 1,000 | $5,500 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Diamond Snowflake Earringsother | 1 in 500 | $3,050 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| BUTTERFLY DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.40CTWother | 1 in 500 | $1,250 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Ace Keychainother | 99.0% | $0.20 | 0.1% | 219 | 219.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $226 | 89.50% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $72.6K (320.7x)