Dice & Dealings

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$54.18

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $48.49 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

105.95%

216 openings, odds method

Variance

7.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

86.79%±42.27164 openings

30 days

105.95%±36.83216 openings

since tracking started

105.95%±36.83216 openings

44.0%93.8%143.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	164	86.79%±42.3	−0.1σ	odds
30d	216	105.95%±36.8	+0.9σ	odds
All	216	105.95%±36.8	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
The War of the Ring Collector’s Editionother	1 in 50	$1,000	41.2%	6	4.3	1.39×
Catan 3D Editionother	1 in 40	$360	18.6%	5	5.4	0.93×
Dungeon and Dragons - Lord Ironwood Giant Tree Creature Miniatureother	1 in 40	$150	7.7%	8	5.4	1.48×
Obsidian Rainbow Dice Setother	1 in 40	$145	7.5%	3	5.4	0.56×
AUSPDICE DND Dice Towerother	1 in 40	$63.00	3.2%	9	5.4	1.67×
Ticket to Ride Board Gameother	1 in 33	$61.00	3.8%	9	6.5	1.39×
7 Wonders Board Gameother	1 in 33	$42.00	2.6%	10	6.5	1.54×
Scorpion Masqué Decrypto: 5th Anniversary Editionother	1 in 33	$32.00	2.0%	8	6.5	1.23×
Cards Against Humanityother	1 in 33	$30.00	1.9%	8	6.5	1.23×
Exploding Kittens Original Editionother	1 in 20	$27.00	2.8%	6	10.8	0.56×
CGE Czech Games Edition Codenames Board Gameother	1 in 20	$24.00	2.5%	8	10.8	0.74×
Monopoly Themed Coastersother	1 in 20	$20.00	2.1%	9	10.8	0.83×
UNO - Classic Colour & Number Matching Card Gameother	1 in 13	$7.00	1.1%	12	16.2	0.74×
Bicycle Dice Setother	10.0%	$6.00	1.2%	21	21.6	0.97×
Pack of Playing Cardsother	10.0%	$4.00	0.8%	19	21.6	0.88×
Monopoly Classic Race Car Tokenother	10.0%	$2.50	0.5%	20	21.6	0.93×
30 Second Sand Clockother	11.0%	$1.25	0.3%	28	23.8	1.18×
Card Sleevesother	12.5%	$1.00	0.3%	27	27.0	1.00×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

The War of the Ring Collector’s Editionother$54.18$1,00018.46x5d

The War of the Ring Collector’s Editionother$54.18$1,00018.46x6d

The War of the Ring Collector’s EditionotherGoodLuckHaveFun$54.18$1,00018.46x6d

The War of the Ring Collector’s Editionother$54.18$1,00018.46x7d

The War of the Ring Collector’s Editionother$54.18$1,00018.46x9d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Card Sleevesother$54.18$1.000.02x23h

CGE Czech Games Edition Codenames Board Gameother$54.18$24.000.44x23h

Pack of Playing Cardsother$54.18$4.000.07x23h

30 Second Sand Clockother$54.18$1.250.02x23h

Monopoly Classic Race Car TokenotherEriksZ$54.18$2.500.05x23h

Monopoly Themed Coastersother$54.18$20.000.37x3d

Obsidian Rainbow Dice Setother$54.18$1452.68x3d

Bicycle Dice Setother$54.18$6.000.11x3d

UNO - Classic Colour & Number Matching Card Gameotherjack$54.18$7.000.13x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$54.18	89.49%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $1,000 (18.46x)