Dream Car
A box on Cases.gg (Cars), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$6,394.62
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $5,723.18 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.45%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 Lamborghini Aventador LP700-4other | 1 in 10,000 | $314K | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2016 Ferrari 488 GTBother | 1 in 10,000 | $256K | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mercedes AMG GT 63other | 1 in 10,000 | $248K | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mercedes Benz G Classother | 1 in 10,000 | $237K | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2019 Rolls-Royce Wraithother | 1 in 10,000 | $218K | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2017 Acura NSXother | 1 in 5,000 | $151K | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Audi RS4other | 1 in 5,000 | $131K | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2016 Porsche Cayman GT4other | 1 in 2,000 | $128K | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Tesla Model S Plaidother | 1 in 2,000 | $101K | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2006 Bentley CONTINENTAL GTother | 1 in 667 | $84.2K | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Audi RS3other | 1 in 400 | $77.5K | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mercedes A45other | 1 in 200 | $74.8K | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2024 Ford Mustang Ecoboostother | 1 in 20 | $40.7K | 35.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 Kia Soulother | 10.0% | $26.8K | 46.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Red Lamborghini Toyother | 20.0% | $29.00 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Rolls Royce Phantom Toyother | 20.0% | $23.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Mercedes G63 Toyother | 20.0% | $19.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Hellcat Toyother | 23.9% | $8.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6,395 | 89.50% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —