Equal Odds

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$831.42

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $744.11 from 100 items

Observed RTP, 30d

50.61%

18 openings, odds method

Variance

8.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

18 openings · below min

30 days

18 openings · below min

since tracking started

18 openings · below min

-0.5%117.5%235.5%

Small sample. 18 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	68.89%±165.8	—	odds
7d	18	50.61%±135.3	—	odds
30d	18	50.61%±135.3	—	odds
All	18	50.61%±135.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds100 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Evolving Skies 6 Booster Box Casecontainer	1 in 100	$20K	26.9%	0	0.2	—
Roaring Skies Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$9,000	12.1%	0	0.2	—
Fusion Strike 6 Booster Box Casecontainer	1 in 100	$8,000	10.8%	0	0.2	—
Chilling Reign 6 Booster Box Casecontainer	1 in 100	$7,340	9.9%	0	0.2	—
Evolutions Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$4,350	5.8%	0	0.2	—
Triumphant Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$3,650	4.9%	0	0.2	—
Unbroken Bonds Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$1,780	2.4%	1	0.2	—
Evolving Skies Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$1,600	2.2%	1	0.2	—
Pokémon Jungle Boosterother	1 in 100	$1,400	1.9%	1	0.2	—
Evolving Skies Booster Box (18 Boosters)other	1 in 100	$1,300	1.7%	0	0.2	—
Temple of Anger Boosterother	1 in 100	$1,080	1.5%	0	0.2	—
Fusion Strike Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$900	1.2%	0	0.2	—
Expansion Pack 20th Anniversary Boosterother	1 in 100	$750	1.0%	0	0.2	—
Legendary Treasures Boosterother	1 in 100	$700	0.9%	0	0.2	—
Ultra Sun Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$700	0.9%	0	0.2	—
Fusion Strike Booster Box (18 Boosters)other	1 in 100	$670	0.9%	0	0.2	—
Neo Discovery Boosterother	1 in 100	$600	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet, Collectible cards Twilight Masquerade Booster Display Box (36 Boosters)other	1 in 100	$590	0.8%	2	0.2	—
EX Sandstorm Boosterother	1 in 100	$550	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Gym Challenge Boosterother	1 in 100	$550	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Hidden Fates Elite Trainer Boxother	1 in 100	$530	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 3 Obsidian Flames Elite Trainer Boxother	1 in 100	$485	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Booster Display Box (36 Packs)other	1 in 100	$455	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Brilliant Stars Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$455	0.6%	0	0.2	—
EX Hidden Legends Boosterother	1 in 100	$450	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Temporal Forces Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$400	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Battle Styles Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$400	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Jungle Boosterother	1 in 100	$400	0.5%	1	0.2	—
Astral Radiance Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$380	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Base Set Boosterother	1 in 100	$355	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Secret Wonders Boosterother	1 in 100	$350	0.5%	1	0.2	—
Majestic Dawn Boosterother	1 in 100	$350	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Vivid Voltage Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$345	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Pokemon TCG: Scarlet and Violet: Paradox RIFT: Booster Display (36CT)other	1 in 100	$315	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Pokemon TCG Scarlet & Violet 3.5 Pokemon 151 Booster Bundleother	1 in 100	$300	0.4%	1	0.2	—
Surging Sparks Booster Box ( PRT Version )other	1 in 100	$285	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Supreme Victors Boosterother	1 in 100	$245	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Scarlet & Violet Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$245	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Paldea Evolved Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$245	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Elite Trainer Box (Miraidon Purple or Koraidon Red, Random Color)other	1 in 100	$225	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Diamond & Pearl Boosterother	1 in 100	$225	0.3%	1	0.2	—
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—Temporal Forces Elite Trainer Boxother	1 in 100	$200	0.3%	1	0.2	—
VMAX Climax Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$150	0.2%	0	0.2	—
25th Anniversary Collection Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$88.90	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Obsidian Flames Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$85.00	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Arceus Boosterother	1 in 100	$65.00	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Paradox Rift Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$61.00	0.1%	0	0.2	—
VSTAR Universe Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$60.00	0.1%	1	0.2	—
Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$50.00	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Pokémon Card 151 Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$45.00	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Stellar Miracle Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$40.00	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Surging Sparks Elite Trainer Boxother	1 in 100	$34.99	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Pokemon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paldea Evolved Booster Bundleother	1 in 100	$34.35	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Crimson Haze Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$34.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Shiny Treasure ex Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$33.60	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Stellar Crown Elite Trainer Boxother	1 in 100	$32.79	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Paradigm Trigger Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$32.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Mask of Change Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$31.00	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Lost Abyss Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$31.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Ruler of the Black Flame Booster Boxother	1 in 100	$30.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
POKEMON TCG: Scarlet and Violet: PALDEAN Fates: Booster Bundleother	1 in 100	$27.99	0.0%	0	0.2	—
POKEMON TCG: Scarlet and Violet: Paradox RIFT: Booster Bundleother	1 in 100	$27.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
POKEMON TCG: SCARLET AND VIOLET SHROUDED FABLE BOOSTER BUNDLEother	1 in 100	$26.99	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Pokemon TCG: Scarlet and Violet: Temporal Forces: Booster Bundleother	1 in 100	$26.65	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Pokemon TCG: Scarlet and Violet Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundleother	1 in 100	$26.51	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 3 Obsidian Flames Booster Bundleother	1 in 100	$24.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Evolutions Boosterother	1 in 100	$22.49	0.0%	0	0.2	—
YU NAGABA × Pokémon Card Game Eeveelution Promo Packother	1 in 100	$20.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Chilling Reign: Eevee 3-Pack Blisterother	1 in 100	$16.00	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle Version 1other	1 in 100	$16.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Trick or Trade 2024 BOOster Bundleother	1 in 100	$13.45	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Hidden Fates Boosterother	1 in 100	$13.39	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Cosmic Eclipse Boosterother	1 in 100	$11.92	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Celebrations Boosterother	1 in 100	$7.50	0.0%	0	0.2	—
151 Boosterother	1 in 100	$7.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Shining Fates Boosterother	1 in 100	$4.52	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Crown Zenith Boosterother	1 in 100	$4.20	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Paldean Fates Boosterother	1 in 100	$3.50	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Lost Origin Boosterother	1 in 100	$3.45	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Brilliant Stars Boosterother	1 in 100	$3.39	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Fusion Strike Boosterother	1 in 100	$3.25	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Twilight Masquerade Boosterother	1 in 100	$2.25	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Play! Pokémon Prize Pack Series Four Boosterother	1 in 100	$2.20	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Shrouded Fable Boosterother	1 in 100	$2.00	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Clay Burst Boosterother	1 in 100	$1.05	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Mad Party Pin Collection: Galarian Mr. Rime Pinpin	1 in 100	$0.99	0.0%	0	0.2	—
McDonald's Match Battle 2022 Boosterother	1 in 100	$0.90	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Gold Gigantamax Charizard Coin (Ultra-Premium Collection - Charizard)other	1 in 100	$0.85	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Unown V & Lugia V Special Collection: Lugia Pinpin	1 in 100	$0.70	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Lucario VSTAR Premium Collection: Lucario Pinpin	1 in 100	$0.65	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Paldea Evolved Fun Pack (3 Cards)other	1 in 100	$0.60	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Trick or Trade 2024 BOOsterother	1 in 100	$0.37	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Trick or Trade 2023 BOOsterother	1 in 100	$0.25	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Cyrus Premium Tournament Collection Coinother	1 in 100	$0.20	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Professor Juniper Coinother	1 in 100	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Sprigatito Coin (Obsidian Flames Checklane Blisters)other	1 in 100	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Astral Radiance: Zeraora Coinother	1 in 100	$0.05	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Evolving Skies: Silver Suicune Coinother	1 in 100	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Crown Zenith Dice Setother	1 in 100	$0.02	0.0%	0	0.2	—
2022 Stacking Tins Gold Pikachu Coinother	1 in 100	$0.02	0.0%	1	0.2	—

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.