First Serve
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$21.26
Advertised RTP
89.48%
EV $19.02 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.82%
382 openings, odds method
Variance
15.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 382 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Vuitton Monogram Classic James Ping Pong Setother | 1 in 2,000 | $3,240 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| JOOLA Inside - Professional MDF Indoor Table Tennis Table with Quick Clamp Ping Pong Net and Post Setother | 1 in 200 | $516 | 13.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| Supreme Butterfly Table Tennis Racket Setother | 1 in 100 | $190 | 10.0% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| Full Send Ping Pong Kitother | 1 in 133 | $165 | 6.5% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× |
| PRO SPIN All-in-One Ping Pong Setother | 1 in 20 | $50.00 | 13.1% | 15 | 19.1 | 0.79× |
| Carbon Fiber Table Tennis Ball Catch Netother | 1 in 20 | $40.00 | 10.5% | 16 | 19.1 | 0.84× |
| STIGA Phoenix Ping Pong Paddleother | 1 in 13 | $30.00 | 11.8% | 38 | 28.6 | 1.33× |
| Mini Tabletop Ping Pong Gameother | 1 in 13 | $27.00 | 10.9% | 30 | 29.4 | 1.02× |
| Score Counterother | 10.0% | $10.00 | 5.3% | 47 | 38.2 | 1.23× |
| PATIKIL Table Tennis Racket Grip Tapeother | 10.0% | $9.20 | 4.8% | 26 | 38.2 | 0.68× |
| Under Armour Men's Performance Headbandother | 15.0% | $5.99 | 4.7% | 63 | 57.3 | 1.10× |
| Kith Stickerother | 37.5% | $0.10 | 0.2% | 140 | 143.3 | 0.98× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.26 | 89.48% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —