Ford Tough
A box on Cases.gg (Cars), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$5,199.98
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $4,653.98 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
156.64%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E GTother | 1 in 200 | $68.5K | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2024 Ford Mustang GT Premiumother | 1 in 200 | $63.8K | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2024 Ford Bronco Big Bendother | 1 in 200 | $55K | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2024 Ford F-150 STXother | 1 in 200 | $50.6K | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bendother | 1 in 100 | $38.5K | 8.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 Ford Escapeother | 1 in 100 | $35.2K | 7.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 Ford Maverick XLother | 1 in 50 | $31.9K | 13.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2019 Ford Fiestaother | 1 in 50 | $19.8K | 8.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2018 Ford Flex SEother | 1 in 50 | $16.5K | 7.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2017 Ford Focus SEother | 1 in 33 | $13.2K | 8.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Ford Fusionother | 1 in 25 | $10K | 8.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| 2014 Ford Focus Electricother | 1 in 17 | $8,470 | 10.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Ford Mustang Blue Neon Clockother | 15.0% | $228 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Ford Logo Smart Backpackother | 15.0% | $88.00 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Ford Mustang Fast Lanes Sport Knockaround Sunglassesother | 17.0% | $44.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| Ford Trucks F-150 Flag Patch Hatother | 10.0% | $28.00 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| Ford Mustang Car Mat Coaster Setother | 10.0% | $15.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Ford Keychainother | 10.0% | $1.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5,200 | 89.50% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $38.5K (7.40x)