Forest Folk

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$15.93

Advertised RTP

89.48%

EV $14.25 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

105.73%

367 openings, odds method

Variance

7.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

107.37%±27.93345 openings

30 days

105.73%±27.08367 openings

since tracking started

105.73%±27.08367 openings

-0.5%123.5%247.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	82.83%±164.1	—	odds
7d	345	107.37%±27.9	+1.3σ	odds
30d	367	105.73%±27.1	+1.2σ	odds
All	367	105.73%±27.1	+1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 367 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Llanowar Elves (V.2)other	1 in 100	$292	20.4%	5	3.7	1.36×
Llanowar Elvesother	1 in 33	$159	33.5%	12	11.0	1.09×
Duel Decks: Elves vs. Goblins Full Setother	1 in 33	$90.00	18.9%	13	11.0	1.18×
Llanowar Elves (V.1)other	1 in 33	$45.00	9.5%	16	11.0	1.45×
Lathril, Blade of the Elves (V.2)other	1 in 33	$40.00	8.4%	11	11.0	1.00×
Duel Decks: Elves vs. Inventors: Full Setother	1 in 33	$25.00	5.3%	11	11.0	1.00×
Duel Decks: Elves vs. Inventors: Duel Deck Boxother	1 in 29	$9.00	2.2%	13	12.8	1.01×
Blade of Selvesother	1 in 20	$1.36	0.5%	18	18.4	0.98×
Jumpstart Pack Summary Card: Elvesother	1 in 20	$0.99	0.3%	17	18.4	0.93×
Drove of Elvesother	1 in 20	$0.57	0.2%	21	18.4	1.14×
Art Series: Lathril, Blade of the Elves (V.2)other	1 in 20	$0.49	0.2%	21	18.4	1.14×
Quirion Elvesother	1 in 20	$0.30	0.1%	22	18.4	1.20×
Fyndhorn Elvesother	1 in 13	$0.20	0.1%	27	27.5	0.98×
Elves of Deep Shadowother	1 in 13	$0.20	0.1%	28	27.5	1.02×
Lathril, Blade of the Elvesother	10.0%	$0.15	0.1%	31	36.7	0.84×
Wood Elvesother	10.0%	$0.14	0.1%	29	36.7	0.79×
Harald Unites the Elves (V.2)other	10.0%	$0.08	0.1%	39	36.7	1.06×
Darkwatch Elvesother	10.5%	$0.02	0.0%	33	38.5	0.86×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Wood Elvesother$15.93$0.140.01x6h

Lathril, Blade of the Elves (V.2)other$15.93$40.002.51x6h

Elves of Deep Shadowother$15.93$0.200.01x6h

Harald Unites the Elves (V.2)other$15.93$0.080.01x6h

Art Series: Lathril, Blade of the Elves (V.2)other$15.93$0.490.03x6h

Darkwatch Elvesotherbananchik$15.93$0.020.00x6h

Lathril, Blade of the Elvesother$15.93$0.150.01x13h

Drove of Elvesother$15.93$0.570.04x13h

Duel Decks: Elves vs. Goblins Full Setother$15.93$90.005.65x13h

Quirion ElvesotherNic21$15.93$0.300.02x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.93	89.48%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —